With U.S. support, Israel and Lebanon pursued a diplomatic resolution to the issues driving tensions along their shared border last quarter, specifically the proposed route of a new Israeli border fence and Lebanon’s planned exploration for offshore oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean (see JPS 47 [3]). On 3/8, Reuters reported that Lebanese and Israeli officials were meeting on a near-daily basis. “There is a full engagement from all the sides,” said a spokesperson for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). “The dialogue is open. No one has ever walked out from these meetings.”
There were no reports of a breakthrough by the end of the quarter, but there was no further escalation of tensions either, despite minor provocations on both sides. During a conference in Rome on 3/15, Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri announced a new deployment of the Lebanese army in southern Lebanon. “While we are thinking of ways to move from a state of cessation of hostilities to a state of permanent cease-fire, Israel continues to make plans to build walls . . . along the blue line,” he added. Then, on 3/31, an Israeli Hermes 450 drone crashed in southern Lebanon. The Hermes 450 was known for carrying out assassinations, according to foreign sources (Haaretz, 3/31), and this particular drone was armed with four missiles, according to the local Lebanese press.
A Hezbollah Victory
As the Israel-Lebanon border remained largely uneventful, Hezbollah and its allies claimed a victory in the first Lebanese parliamentary election since 2009. They won (5/6) approximately a third of the plenum’s 128 seats, which Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah celebrated (5/7) as a “political and moral victory for the resistance.” Hariri’s Future Movement Party lost 11 of its 32 seats, but it was still the largest Sunni bloc, and the prime minister was expected to return for another term. “My hand is extended to every Lebanese who participated in the elections to preserve stability and create jobs,” Hariri said (5/7), pledging to continue working closely with Lebanese president Michel Aoun.