Quarterly Updates for (16 May 2018 — 15 Aug 2018)

Following a series of increasingly deadly skirmishes between Iranian-backed forces and Israeli troops in southwest Syria last quarter (see JPS 47 [4]), the Iranian role in the ongoing Syrian civil war took center stage. As low-level cross-border violence continued, the Israelis embarked on an inconclusive diplomatic initiative to convince Iran’s allies in Russia to secure the removal of all Iranian forces from Syria.

Israel’s position had always been that “there is no room for any Iranian military presence in any part of Syria,” Israeli PM Netanyahu told the Knesset on 5/28. Initially, the Russians had remained neutral on the issue, but in a major reversal, Russian FM Sergey Lavrov responded on the same day saying that (5/28) Syrian forces alone should have a presence on the border with Israel. “All non-Syrian forces should be withdrawn on a reciprocal basis,” he added. Israeli security and diplomatic sources attributed the Russian reversal to the particularly deadly Israeli attack in Syria on 5/10 (Haaretz, 5/28).

After Israeli DM Lieberman flew to Moscow for a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu, on 5/31, there were reports that the two had found common ground. According to Asharq Al Awsat, Shoigu gave Israel the “green light” to operate in Syria as long as the Israeli army did not target Syrian army positions (6/1). He reportedly also pledged that Iranian and Hezbollah troops would pull back at least 20 kilometers from Syria’s border with Israel, with the ultimate goal being to retreat at least 70 kilometers. The next day, Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, confirmed that Russia and Israel had reached some form of understanding. “At this point, I cannot answer if it is being realized, but as far as I understand, the parties that were involved in reaching an agreement are satisfied with what they have achieved,” he said.

In 6/2018 and early 7/2018, the Syrian army was in the final stages of a campaign to retake control of southwestern Syria from a variety of rebel groups. The Israeli army carried out air strikes on anti-regime Iranian and Hezbollah positions on at least five occasions (6/17, 6/25, 7/6, 7/8, and 7/11; see Chronology).

With tensions rising along the Israel-Syria border, Netanyahu met with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 7/11, marking their ninth meeting since Russia’s direct military involvement in Syria in 9/2015. Netanyahu claimed (7/12) that Putin had committed to pulling Iranian, Hezbollah, and allied forces “tens of kilometers” away from the Syria-Israel border. Netanyahu added that he had made it clear to Putin that Israel did “not object” to Syrian pres. Bashar al-Asad retaking control of Syria, a top Russian priority in the region. “The heart of the matter is preserving our freedom of action against anyone who acts against us,” Netanyahu said (7/12). One senior Israeli official said that the Netanyahu-Putin meeting created a “realistic opportunity” to “push Iran out of Syria.”

When Netanyahu met (7/23) with Lavrov in Jerusalem a week later, an ancillary issue came up. In addition to ground forces, the Israelis wanted Russia to secure the removal of all Iranian weapons. “The removal of Iran must include the removal of long-range weapons, halting the production of precision weapons as well as the air defenses that protect the missiles, and the closure of border crossings that permit smuggling of this weaponry to Lebanon and to Syria,” a senior Israeli official said (7/23). The Russians, he added, definitely had the ability to do this, saying, “They are a significant factor in Syria.”

Finally, two days after the Syrian army successfully regained control of southwestern Syria, including the region adjacent to the Syria-Israel border, Putin’s Special Envoy to Syria Alexander Lavrentiev said (8/1) that the bulk of the Iranian forces and all heavy weapons had withdrawn to at least 85 kilometers from the Israel-Syria border. He indicated that Iranian military advisors remained embedded with Syrian troops in the area, “but there are no units of heavy equipment and weapons that could pose a threat to Israel at a distance of 85 kilometers from the line of demarcation.”

85 kilometers from the line of demarcation.” The Israelis were apparently dissatisfied with the new arrangement, and low-level skirmishes continued through the end of the quarter (see Chronology). “What we have laid down as a red line is military intervention and entrenchment by Iran in Syria, and not necessarily on our border,”said Israel’s Regional Cooperation Minister Tzachi Hanegbi (Reuters, 8/1). “There’ll be no compromises nor concessions on this matter.”

Devastation in Yarmouk

In the context of the Syrian army’s campaign to regain control of southwestern Syria, government troops mounted a final assault against the Damascus suburb of Yarmouk, once home to the largest population of Palestinian refugees in Syria, on 5/21. The intensive bombardment that began on 4/19 (see JPS 47 [4]), coming after seven years of siege, left the camp in ruins, “with hardly a house untouched by the conflict,” according to UNRWA spokesperson Chris Gunness on 5/21. “The public health system, water, electricity, [and] basic services [necessary] for life are severely damaged. The debris of this pitiless conflict is everywhere. In that environment, it is hard to see how people can go back,” he added.