Quarterly Updates for (16 May 2016 — 15 Aug 2016)

Iran was largely uninvolved in the IsraeliPalestinian sphere this quarter. After an Islamic Jihad delegation’s visit to Tehran in 4/2016, Asharq Al Awsat reported (5/25) that Iran intended to resume supporting the group and end 2 years of strained relations. There were no follow-up reports this quarter indicating whether, or how, Iranian support for the group had resumed.

Meanwhile, in the context of the 1st anniversary of Iran’s nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, UK, U.S., and Germany), the Associated Press reported (7/18) on a leaked document connected to the deal, apparently the only relevant text that had not been made public. According to a diplomat involved in the leak, the document, depicted as an “add-on” rather than an explicit part of the deal, outlined a process by which Iran would be allowed to cut its nuclear breakout time to 6 mos., starting in 1/2027, by replacing its old centrifuges with thousands of newer models. Since the U.S.’s signature demand in the talks had been for Iran to have at least a 1-year breakout time (see JPS 45 [1]), the leaked document sparked renewed criticism by opponents of the deal, particularly U.S. congressional Republicans.