Quarterly Updates

As protests, random attacks, and resistance activities in the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza continued to subside, this quarter the world’s attention turned to Washington, where outgoing U.S. pres. Barack Obama handed over to pres.-elect Trump. Ending mos.

The following data come from a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) on 8–10 December 2016. The results are based on a survey of 1,270 men and women from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.

Aside from working with the Palestinians to submit an anti-settlement res. to the UNSC on 12/21 (see “The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict” above), the Egyptian govt. was largely absent from the Israeli-Palestinian arena this quarter.

Following mos. of interfactional tension and violence in ‘Ayn al-Hilweh r.c. (see JPS 45 [2]), the Lebanese army began constructing a new wall around the camp on 11/20.

The Israeli and Turkish govts. continued building on their 6/27/2016 reconciliation agreement this quarter.

Even before U.S. pres. Trump took office on 1/20, his allies in Israel and the U.S. Congress were preparing for a major shift in U.S.

Trump Shapes the Post-Obama Paradigm

In 1/2017, Netanyahu proposed to his cabinet that Israel join “Creative Europe,” an EU cultural and media initiative and grant-making organization, according to a Haaretz report on 1/29. Finance Min. Kahlon, Economy Min. Eli Cohen, and Culture and Sports Min.

Three mos. after UK secy. of state for international development Priti Patel froze around a 3d of the UK’s annual aid to the Palestinians and ordered a review of funding procedures (see JPS 46 [2]), the Dept.

In addition to organizing and hosting a peace conference in Paris on 1/15 (see “The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict” above), the French govt. published (11/24) new regulations calling for the accurate labeling of goods imported from the oPt.

On 2/7, Israel’s amb. to Ireland, Zeev Boker, sent a message to Jerusalem warning that Dublin planned to recognize Palestinian statehood.

German chancellor Angela Merkel postponed indefinitely the Israeli-German summit scheduled for 5/10/2017, according to a report in Haaretz on 2/13.

After Russian pres. Vladimir Putin’s proposal to host peace talks between PA pres. Abbas and Israeli PM Netanyahu in Moscow fell through last quarter (see JPS 46 [2]), the Russian govt. backed away from the Israeli-Palestinian arena. PLO secy.-gen.

In his alacrity to build a positive relationship with the new U.S. pres., Netanyahu sparked a minor diplomatic crisis with Mexico. In reference to Trump’s loudly proclaimed intention to build a wall along the border with Mexico, on 1/28, the Israeli PM tweeted, “Pres. Trump is right.

Brasilia accepted the appointment of Yossi Shelli as Israeli amb. on 1/17, ending the diplomatic crisis set off by PM Netanyahu’s nomination of settler leader Dani Dayan to the post (see JPS 45 [2–4]).

UNRWA’s Financial Crisis

There was no meeting of the Ad Hoc Liaison Comm. this quarter. However, there was a steady stream of international aid pledged to the PA and the Palestinian people.

Boycott

Palestinian and Israeli casualty rates decreased slightly this quarter, reflecting a general decline in violence over the course of 2016 (see JPS 46 [1, 2]): 29 Palestinians were killed as a result of Israeli actions (down from 32 last quarter), and 5 Israelis

The surge of violence (habba) that began before the Jewish High Holidays in 9/2015 continues to subside, and this year’s holidays pass without any major incidents. The Palestinian Authority (PA) and Israeli govt.

This quarter marked the 1st anniversary of the eruption of violence, or habba (surge or revolt in English), that began in East Jerusalem and the West Bank during the Jewish High Holidays in 9/2015.

The overall number of Palestinian and Israeli casualties rose slightly this quarter, following a yearlong trend toward falling casualty rates: 32 Palestinians were killed as a result of Israeli actions (up from 23 last quarter), and 2 Israelis were killed as a result of Palestinian actions (down

MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS MISFIRE

The following data come from a poll conducted by An-Najah National University’s Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies (OPSSC) on 13–15 October 2016. The results are based on a survey of 1,362 men and women from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.

With his inchoate peace initiative floundering (see JPS 46 [1]), Egyptian pres. al-Sisi disengaged from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict this quarter.

In the 2 years since the National Electric Power Company (NEPC) of Jordan 1st signed (9/3/2014) a letter of intent to import natural gas from the international consortium of companies contracted by Israel to develop its offshore Leviathan natural gas field, the proposed deal had been bogged down

For the 2d quarter in a row, the plight of the Palestinian residents of Khan Eshieh r.c. outside Damascus was in the spotlight, with continued fighting nr. the Syrian capital placing them in an increasingly dangerous position.

After the single major cross-border incident of the quarter on 10/26 (see Chronology for details), the IDF was reportedly preparing for a possible return to full-scale violence on Israel’s n. border with Lebanon.

As Israel and Turkey implemented the reconciliation deal they announced on 6/27 (see JPS 46 [1]), their new relationship took shape.

Military Aid Deal Reached

There was 1 major Palestine-related development in the UK this quarter. Secy. of State for International Development Priti Patel, a Conservative who rose to power after the Brexit vote earlier this year, announced that the British govt. had decided to freeze the transfer of £25 m. (approx.

While Israel’s ties with much of the rest of the world were deteriorating, Israeli PM Netanyahu dedicated significant energy to the diplomatic outreach campaign he launched in Africa last quarter. After visiting Guinea for a meeting with Pres. Alpha Condé and other senior officials, the dir.

On 9/15, Arab League envoy to the IAEA Wael al-Assad confirmed (9/15) the rumors that the Arab states, normally led by Egypt, would not be submitting a res. at the 2016 IAEA meeting calling for international oversight on Israel’s nuclear facilities.

The AHLC, the chief policy-level coordination mechanism for development assistance to the Palestinians, met on 9/19 on the sidelines of the UNGA. The meeting, hosted by UN secy.-gen. Ban Ki-moon and chaired by Norwegian FM Børge Brende, offered the comm.

Boycott