The Palestine Chronology

In East Jerusalem, a group of Jewish settlers stabs and beats 2 East Jerusalem Palestinians, killing 1 Palestinian and wounding the other; Israeli authorities confiscate the body of the man killed and return it to the family with orders to hold the burial immediately, with no more than 10 family mrbs. present to prevent rioting (the family complies). In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in 3 villages nr. Ramallah, 2 nr. Qalqilya, and 2 nr. Tulkarm in the afternoon and evening, and in 1 village nr. Qalqilya late at night; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Nablus. Palestinians (accompanied by Israeli and international activists in some areas) hold weekly nonviolent demonstrations against the separation wall, land confiscations, and settlement expansion in Bil‘in, Ni‘lin, and Dayr Nizam/Nabi Salih. IDF soldiers fire rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at the protesters; 3 Palestinians are injured, and 3 are arrested. (PCHR 2/17; OCHA 2/18)

Early in the day, with massive antigovernment protests expected in Egypt after Friday’s midday prayers, rumors spread that Mubarak has left Cairo for his residence in Sharm al-Shaykh under pressure from the army. Soon after, the Supreme Council of the Egyptian Armed Forces issues communiqué no. 2 indicating that the military is in effective control of the country and will oversee “the peaceful transfer of authority . . . towards a free democratic community that the people aspire to,” and pledging not to take action against protesters for demonstrating against the government. Timed with lateevening prayers, VP Suleiman confirms that Mubarak has “decided to relieve himself of his position as president and the supreme military council has taken control of the state’s affairs,” ending the 82-yr.-old leader’s 30-yr. rule. Flag-waving crowds in Tahrir Square and nationwide erupt in celebration. (AHR, NYT 2/11; NYT, WP, WT 2/12)

In Gaza, 1,000s of Hamas supporters rally to celebrate Mubarak’s fall, calling on the next Egyptian government to open the Rafah border and reconsider Egypt’s relations with Israel. In the West Bank, the PA continues to bar rallies in solidarity with Egyptian protesters, but 100s of Palestinians spontaneously honk horns and cheer in the streets when news of Mubarak’s exit broadcast. (NYT 2/12)

In light of domestic security concerns, Egypt seals its border with Gaza, causing almost all trade through the smuggling tunnels along the Rafah border to cease, sparking hoarding by Gazans. Hamas authorities assure the public that it has enough fuel and food stockpiled to last several days, warning merchants against hiking prices. OCHA however—noting that Israel continues to cut off all industrial fuel imports to Gaza for a 3d week making Gaza all the more reliant on smuggled fuel—expresses concern that fuel shortages will quickly become a problem, affecting the ability of municipal authorities to provide electricity, water, and sewage treatment. Meanwhile, Hamas officials in Gaza report that at least 8 Hamas mbrs. jailed in Egypt are among those freed during prisons breaks and rioting across Egypt in recent days; at least 2 have already returned to Gaza through smuggling tunnels on the Rafah border. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in a village nr. Tulkarm during the day; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Hebron and nr. Jenin and Qalqilya (warning the mayor of Jayyus that his house would be turned into an IDF post if stone-throwing at troops fr. the village continued). (AFP, MNA 1/30; PCHR 2/3; OCHA 2/4)

With major protests (10,000s) in Egypt continuing unabated and a “march of millions” called for 2/1, the Obama admin. calls on Mubarak to facilitate an “orderly transition” to a more representative government but does not explicitly call on him to resign, with Secy. Clinton stressing “we are not advocating any specific outcome,” but “it needs to be done immediately.” France and Germany issue similar statements. Joint Chiefs of Staff head Adm. Mike Mullen phones Egyptian military chief of staff Gen. Sami Anan to express “his appreciation for the continued professionalism of the Egyptian military” in refusing to engage protesters. Amid signs that Mubarak’s regime might really topple, Egypt’s organized opposition parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, huddle for most of the day to discuss whether they could project a united front to provide direction and leadership to the popular protests, choosing opposition figure and fmr. IAEA head Muhammad El-Baradei (as a nonthreatening figure to the West) to represent the opposition in negotiations with the government over a transition and naming 10 persons they would delegate to an interim unity government. But when El-Baradei speaks in Tahrir Square in the evening, demonstrators reject him, saying the opposition parties do not represent them. Fearing that outside forces could begin smuggling weapons into the country to back an overthrow, Egypt seals the Gaza border indefinitely and, with Israel’s permission, moves 2 battalions (800 soldiers) into the Sinai for the 1st time since the 1979 peace treaty was reached, requiring the area to be a demilitarized zone. Israeli officials hold nearly around-the-clock strategy meetings to discuss the implications for Israel if Mubarak’s government falls, fearing that Mubarak’s overthrow could strengthen Hamas in Gaza and destabilize Jordan, but seeing Mubarak’s appointment of Suleiman, who has overseen Israeli-Hamas prisoner release talks, as a hopeful sign. Netanyahu orders officials to stay publicly silent as events play out. (MNA, NYT, WP 1/30; NYT, WP, WT 1/31)

Paraguay recognizes Palestine as independent state on the 1967 borders. (JP 2/5)

In Gaza, 1,000s of Hamas supporters protest against the PA in light of the Palestine Papers revelations about negotiation concessions, particularly on the right of return. In the West Bank, around 2,000 Palestinians in Hebron and smaller groups in other cities attend Fatah-organized rallies in support of Abbas and against al-Jazeera. Also in the West Bank, a group of 100 armed Jewish settlers hiking nr. Khirbat Safa nr. Hebron is confronted by stone-throwing Palestinian youths, prompting 1 Jewish settler to open fire, killing 1 Palestinian teenager and wounding a 2d, marking the 2d such shooting in 2 days. Jewish settlers fr. Yonatan outpost in the East Jerusalem environs attack nearby Palestinian houses; accompanying IDF soldiers fire tear gas and stun grenades to keep Palestinians at a distance, sparking a fire that lightly damages 1 home. Meanwhile in the West Bank, the IDF patrols in villages nr. Ramallah, Tulkarm; enters Jayyus village nr. Qalqilya, searching 1 home but making no arrests. Palestinians (accompanied by Israeli and international activists in some areas) hold weekly nonviolent demonstrations against the separation wall, land confiscations, and settlement expansion in Bil‘in and Ni‘lin. IDF soldiers fire rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at the protesters, injuring 2 Palestinians. PA General Intelligence units detain leading Hizb al-Tahrir mbr. Mus‘ab Abu Arqub after Friday prayers in Dura nr. Hebron. (WP 1/29, MNA 1/30; PCHR 2/3; OCHA 2/4)

Across Egypt, 100,000s of protesters heed the call to observe a “Friday of rage” in Egypt, launching massive demonstrations after midday prayers. Protesters burn the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) headquarters in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Police stations and NDP offices are torched in several of Cairo’s middleclass neighborhoods and poorer quarters, as well as in Alexandria, Suez, Port Said, Damietta, Damanhour, and other areas of Upper Egypt and Sinai; prisoners in several jails are freed. With regular police already largely having withdrawn fr. the street, not wanting to confront protesters, Mubarak sends out security and plain-clothes police who violently clash with demonstrators and target journalists, killing as many as 300 and injuring as many as 2,000. Protesters in Cairo and Alexandria overwhelm the security police by dusk, forcing Mubarak to withdraw them to regroup and send the army and tanks into the cities to impose a curfew; but when protesters ignore the curfew, the army does not act. Later, Mubarak appears on state TV and, in effort to appease critics and quell protests, pledges to speed up his program of political and economic reforms, announcing that he has dissolved his cabinet, appointed a new PM to form a new government, and named military intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman as his 1st ever VP, but protesters vow to remain in the streets until he steps down. The U.S. issues its first warnings that it will review its $1.56 b. in annual aid to Egypt depending on how events unfold in the coming days, pressing its contacts within the Egyptian army to avoid violence. Abbas, however, phones Mubarak to assure him of the PA’s support for Egypt’s security and stability. (IHS Global Insight, Middle East Research and Information Project, NYT, WP 1/29; MNA 1/30)

In Jordan, where criticism of the king is banned, 1,000s of demonstrators inspired by events in Egypt and Tunisia turn out after Friday prayers in Amman and cities across the kingdom to demand the resignation of PM Samir al-Rifa‘i and his cabinet, dissolution of the parliament, and a new round of free and fair elections. (The last parliamentary elections held in 11/2010 were widely criticized as fraudulent.) (NYT 1/29; NYT, WP 1/30; WP 2/1; NYT 2/2)