Quarterly Updates

Regional events figure heavily in developments this quarter as the Saudi Arabian crown prince steps out of the shadows of secret meetings with Israeli and U.S.

Amid the shifting regional dynamics, there were signs that Bahrain was ready to normalize its relationship with Israel.

Trump’s Ambassador on Settlements

UNHRC

International soccer’s governing body, the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA), delivered its final ruling on the Palestinian attempt to get Israel suspended from international competition this quarter.

Despite Israeli and U.S. pressure to delay or suspend the vote, Interpol’s general assembly approved Palestine’s petition for full membership on 9/27, with 75 mbr. states in favor, 24 against, and 34 abstaining.

Following persistent reports of Israeli forces confiscating EU-funded construction materials and demolishing EU-supported infrastructure projects in the West Bank, 8 European govts. signed onto a letter demanding that the Israeli govt. pay them more than €30,000 (approx.

Netanyahu’s outreach efforts on the African continent suffered a setback this quarter. On 9/11, the Jerusalem Post reported that the Africa-Israel Summit, which in many ways was the culmination of Netanyahu’s diplomatic campaign, had been indefinitely postponed.

The Ad Hoc Liaison Comm., the main policy-level coordination mechanism for development assistance to the Palestinians, convened on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York on 9/18. Hosted by UN undersecy.- gen.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement, which was sealed with the 2 countries’ 6/27/2016 agreement to normalize relations (see JPS 46 [1]), suffered a setback this quarter because of the 9/25 Kurdish independence referendum.

After mos. of prevarication on the fate of the 7/14/2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Trump took his first major step to abandon the Iran nuclear deal this quarter.

The growing rift between Iran and its growing sphere of influence, on the one hand, and the Saudi-led so-called Sunni axis, on the other, escalated further this quarter, with unresolved tensions over the previous quarter’s Saudi-led boycott of Qatar, which had repercussions as far away as Lebanon

U.S. pres. Donald Trump continued work on a peace initiative this quarter, without any resolution to lingering uncertainties on key issues (e.g., whether the U.S. should move its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; see JPS 46 [4] and 47 [1]).

After the flare-up of violence surrounding new Israeli security measures at Haram al-Sharif last quarter, Israeli-Palestinian violence returned to pre-crisis levels. As a result, the number of Palestinians killed by Israeli actions this quarter fell to 21, down from 38.

“HISTORIC COMPROMISE”

The following data come from a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) between 9/14–16/2017. The results are based on a survey of 1,270 Palestinians from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptian govt., particularly its intelligence apparatus, was instrumental in brokering the new Palestinian reconciliation agreement. Dir.

Neither the Israeli nor the Jordanian govt. made any effort to restore diplomatic relations after an Israeli security guard killed 2 Jordanians on 7/23 and the Israeli govt.’s subsequent recall of its embassy staff from Amman.

The Israeli govt.’s discontent with last quarter’s U.S- and Russia-backed cease-fire in southwestern Syria, which went into effect on 7/9 (see JPS 47 [1]), persisted throughout the quarter.

Internal Lebanese politics became the focal point of longstanding regional tensions at the end of the quarter (see “Regional Affairs” below).

Boycott