Along with the apparently growing sectarian rift in the region in recent years, the Israeli govt. under PM Netanyahu has attempted to strengthen ties with the Saudi-led so-called Sunni axis as a counterweight to Shi‘adominated Iran. Although past Israeli overtures have been depicted as unwelcome, there have been a few instances when the Saudis were interpreted as having reciprocated, and this quarter saw 1 such instance.
In mid-7/2016, retired Gen. Anwar Eshki visited Israel to build support for the Arab Peace Initiative, meeting with the dir.-gen. of the Foreign Ministry, Dore Gold, COGAT commander Yoav Mordechai, and a group of MKs. Heading a delegation of Saudi academics and businessmen, Eshki, once a top advisor to the Saudi leadership, was widely viewed as being a de facto emissary of Saudi Arabia’s incoming monarch, King Salman bin Abdulaziz. In his response to the news, Hezbollah leader Shaykh Hasan Nasrallah described (7/28) Eshki’s visit as “in effect, normalizing [Saudi relations with Israel] for free, without receiving anything in return.” Hamas also released a critical statement (7/31), calling on Saudi Arabia to “take measures to prevent such normalizing visits that [Israel] uses to undermine the rights of Palestinians.” In an interview with the Nazareth-based al-Shams radio station on 8/2, Eshki rebuffed his detractors stating that his visit had not been “coordinated with” the Saudi royal family. “I came on my own behalf and that of the research institute,” he told his interviewer, decrying those “who tried to exploit the visit and its timing in order to attack Saudi Arabia. In Israel, too, they exploited the visit to report on closer [relations] and normalization.”
Kicking off his first international trip as U.S. president, Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on 5/20–22. He met with King Salman and the leaders of various other Arab states, called on “Muslim nations” to “take on the burden” of defeating terrorism, and signed an agreement to sell $110 b. in U.S. arms to Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years. According to a U.S. statement, “this package demonstrates, in the clearest terms possible, the U.S.’s commitment to our partnership with Saudi Arabia and our Gulf partners, while also expanding opportunities for American companies in the region, and supporting tens of thousands of new jobs in the U.S. defense industrial base.” The arms deal, along with Trump’s embrace of Salman, had immediate repercussions across the Middle East (see “Regional Affairs” above), including in Israel, where it stoked renewed fears about the regional balance of power. Despite a 5/23 White House statement pledging to preserve Israel’s qualitative military edge in the Middle East, DM Lieberman noted (5/24) that he was “not at peace with” the Saudi arms deal as it accelerated the weapons race across the region. Netanyahu, for his part, touted Trump’s commitment to Israel’s security and announced (5/24) that the U.S. had allocated an additional $75 m. to support joint U.S.-Israeli missile defense activities.
There was one notable development in the Israeli-Saudi relationship this quarter. Sources in Israel’s aviation industry told Haaretz on 2/7 that the Saudi government had granted an Air India request to operate direct flights from New Delhi to Tel Aviv on a new route through Saudi airspace. Such a move would cut more than two hours from the previous route’s travel time and, more importantly, end the Saudi government’s seventy-year ban on any aircraft flying to or from Israel in its airspace. It also would offer a further tangible demonstration of a warming of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, something Israel has pursued for years. However, a spokesperson for Saudi Arabia’s Civil Aviation General Authority denied the report (Reuters, 2/7).
The Saudi role in Middle East affairs was evolving this quarter, particularly around Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s campaign to consolidate his own power and further intensify Saudi Arabia’s antagonistic foreign policy toward Iran and to enhance the kingdom’s unofficial but warming relationship with Israel.
Rumored last quarter, the Saudi government ended its seventy-year ban on Israeli aircraft flying in its airspace, as well as aircraft flying to or from Israel. On 3/22, Air India flew a Boeing 767 from New Delhi to Tel Aviv along a new, shorter route across Saudi Arabia. The flight marked the first tangible sign of a warming of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia and prompted Netanyahu to comment (3/25) on the “huge” potential it held for Israel’s future role in the region. Following an Israeli report about secret Egypt-mediated Saudi-Israeli negotiations leading up to the flight, a PA official also remarked on the significance of the development (Channel 10 [Israel], 3/9). “The warm relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia are damaging the PA,” he said. “It seems that Israel is no longer the greatest enemy in the region anymore.”
Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed embarked on a twenty-day visit to the United States in 3–4/2018. He met with Trump (3/20) and other U.S. officials to discuss a wide range of issues. According to some press reports, Trump administration officials briefed him on the contents of their long-awaited peace plan (see “The Trump Initiative” above). Bin Salman also gave (4/2) an extensive interview to The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg, covering topics from the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the JCPOA. In response to a question about the Jewish people’s right to a nation-state, the Saudi crown prince said, “I believe that each people, anywhere, has a right to live in their peaceful nation. I believe the Palestinians and the Israelis have the right to have their own land. But we have to have a peace agreement to assure the stability for everyone and to have normal relations.” Goldberg followed up with a question about Saudi Arabia’s shared interests with Israel, to which the crown prince responded, “Of course there are a lot of interests we share with Israel and if there is peace, there would be a lot of interest between Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and countries like Egypt and Jordan.” His comments prompted Goldberg to speculate that “the Saudis, like many Arab leaders, have tired of the Palestinians.”
While the Ramallah-based Palestinian leadership neglected to respond directly to the interview, Hamas, PIJ, and PFLP leaders all condemned the crown prince’s comments. The Saudi monarch and father of the crown prince then clarified (4/3) that Riyadh remained “steadfast” in its dedication to “the Palestinian issue and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.”
Nevertheless, the crown prince’s statements concerning the Palestinians remained a source of tension. On 4/29, Israel’s Channel 10 reported that Crown Prince Mohammed told a group of U.S. Jewish leaders in New York on 3/27 that the Palestinian leadership needed to accept the Trump administration’s peace plan or “shut up and stop complaining.” He also reportedly said that the Palestinians were not a top priority for Saudi Arabia because he had “much more urgent and important issues to deal with,” such as Iran.
After Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visited the U.S. last quarter and made statements about the growing confluence of interests between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Saudi relationship with the Palestinians, the Saudi role in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict’s place in the political dynamics of the Middle East all came to the fore this quarter. King Salman had attempted to ease Palestinian concerns on 4/3 when he said that Riyadh remained “steadfast” in its dedication to “the Palestinian issue and the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.” He went a step further this quarter. After months of intermittent reports that the Saudis would likely accept whatever peace plan the Trump administration came up with, Salman reportedly informed U.S. officials that he would not be able to support the plan if it did not provide for a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem (Reuters, 7/29).
Kicking off his first international trip as U.S. president, Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on 5/20–22. He met with King Salman and the leaders of various other Arab states, called on “Muslim nations” to “take on the burden” of defeating terrorism, and signed an agreement to sell $110 b. in U.S. arms to Saudi Arabia over the next 10 years. According to a U.S.