Continued Tension with Israel
As Pres. Obama ushered in his last year in office, stalled talks about a new U.S. military aid program to Israel further strained U.S.-Israeli relations this quarter and unconfirmed reports suggested the admin. was realigning U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Rumors to that effect had circulated since the spring 2015 Israeli elections when the admin. announced it was “reassessing” its position (see JPS 44 [4]). With the nuclear agreement with Iran all but secured, Obama seemed to be considering a new stance.
Early in the quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported (3/7) that senior admin. officials were talking about a final White House push for a 2-state solution, including a blueprint for future Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. Among the options under consideration were: support for a UNSC res. calling on both the Palestinians and Israelis to compromise, which Washington had opposed in the past; a major policy speech from Obama himself; and a new joint statement from the Middle East Quartet. A White House spokesperson denied (3/8) that there had been any change to admin. policy but left open the possibility of “future engagement . . . as it relates to determining how to most effectively advance the objective we all share in achieving a negotiated 2-state solution.”
In another report at the end of the quarter (5/7), senior U.S. diplomats were described as indicating that the U.S. planned to endorse a new Quartet document containing unusually strong language condemning Israel’s settlements, demolitions of Palestinian property, and property seizures in the West Bank. The document, which the Quartet was reportedly hoping to publish and get endorsed by the UNSC in 5/2016 or 6/2016, would highlight obstacles to a 2-state solution and include recommendations for restarting negotiations.
Meanwhile, in an unlikely development, 11 mbrs. of the traditionally pro-Israel Congress, including Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), wrote on 2/17 to Secy. of State Kerry asking him to investigate the “disturbing number of reports of possible gross violations of human rights by security forces in Israel.” Politico, which published the letter on 3/29, then reused language from the letter, including the phrase “extrajudicial killings,” in reference to the actions of Israeli forces in Israel and the oPt. Predictably, the letter drew condemnation from Israel and its allies in the U.S. PM Netanyahu called Kerry on 4/1 requesting that he state publicly that the Obama admin. did not consider recent IDF killings of Palestinians to be extrajudicial. Kerry made no such statement, however. Instead, his dept. assured (5/5) the 11 mbrs. of Congress that it was tracking all alleged Israeli violations of human rights.
Aid to Israel and the Palestinians
U.S.-Israeli talks on a new military aid agreement remained stalled this quarter evidencing the level of acrimony between the Obama admin. and the Israeli govt. Although officials on both sides repeatedly said that they wanted to see an increase in U.S. military aid to Israel—the memorandum of understanding (MoU) governing U.S. annual military aid disbursements, which currently guaranteed Israel $30 b. over 10 years, was due to expire—reports outlined a persistent disparity in the amounts involved.
In the early weeks of the quarter, top Israeli and U.S. military officials met to work out the terms of a possible agreement. Israeli DM Ya’alon met with U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chair Joseph Dunford in Tel Aviv on 3/3 and Defense Secy. Ash Carter in Washington on 3/14, and they agreed to cooperate “in the cyber domain to enhance their nations’ cyber defense capabilities,” according to a Defense Dept. spokesperson.
Adding to U.S.-Israeli tensions was PM Netanyahu’s cancellation (3/7) of his plan to attend the annual American Israel Public Affairs Comm. (AIPAC) conference. Haaretz reported that Netanyahu was not interested in visiting Washington if Pres. Obama would not meet with him. A U.S. National Security Council spokesperson denied the report (3/7), clarifying that the Obama admin. had, in fact, invited Netanyahu to meet with the pres. on 3/18. Afterward, Israeli officials, speaking off the record, offered a different explanation, saying that Netanyahu did not want to be seen as interfering in the U.S. presidential campaign currently underway (see below). In the wake of the cancellation, U.S. VP Joe Biden visited Israel for further talks and urged the PM on 3/8 to conclude a deal with Obama even if the amount fell short of Israel’s request. Biden also pledged “unvarnished” commitment to Israel. Israeli dep. FM Tzipi Hotovely then cited (3/10) a new reason for the Israeli premier’s cancellation: “The PM wants to honor the U.S. pres. by going [to Washington] when there is a basis, good news on the matter of the U.S. aid package.
As Netanyahu marshaled his supporters in the U.S. to pressure the Obama admin., new details from the negotiations were leaked to the press. On 3/30, Netanyahu conveyed to a congressional delegation led by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) that he wanted to conclude a deal before Obama left office and the U.S. senator reportedly assured him that the admin.’s current offer was within U.S. means, implying that any increase would strain the govt.’s budget. The next day, an Israeli official said that Netanyahu might allow the talks to fail if there were any signs that the U.S. might support a Palestinian-backed UNSC res. censuring Israel’s settlements. Then, in 4/2016, a group of 83 U.S. senators sent Obama a letter calling on him to sign a new military aid agreement with Israel forthwith. After the U.S. press broke the story, a White House official responded (4/25), saying “we are preparing to sign [an agreement] that would constitute the largest single pledge of military assistance to any country in U.S. history.” The following week, citing anonymous U.S. and Israeli sources, Reuters revealed (5/3) that Israel was seeking a $10 b. increase over the current 10-year MoU, including at least $3.7 b. in annual aid, additional support for its missile defense programs, and the opportunity to lobby for more money on an ad hoc basis. The Obama admin. was offering no more than $3.7 b., and balked at the prospect of annual lobbying for ad hoc projects.
While Israeli and U.S. negotiators were working out the terms of the new aid package to Israel, U.S. aid to the Palestinians was also in flux. On 3/12, PLO Exec. Comm. mbr. Ashrawi met with mbrs. of the Congress and other U.S. officials. She called on them to support the French peace initiative (see “The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict” above), and pressured House Republicans to lift their hold on $159 m. in aid to the PA. Chair of the House Appropriations Subcomm. Kay Granger (R-TX) had reportedly requested the aid to be blocked in fall 2015 to protest the Palestinian statehood initiative at the UN and the PA’s payments to Palestinian families whose imprisoned relative was convicted by Israel of committing serious crimes against Israelis. Later, Al-Monitor reported (4/19) that $108 m. of the aid had been unblocked but that some mbrs. of Congress wanted to codify new restrictions on Palestinian aid into 2017 appropriations legislation.
Also of note: the U.S. consul gen. in Jerusalem, Donald Blome, announced (5/9) a new program by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to provide $50 m. to Gaza over 5 years for humanitarian support, job creation, and capacity-building.
The Palestinian-Israeli Conflict and the 2016 Presidential Race
Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump all but locked up the presumptive Democratic and Republican nominations for pres. this quarter. Both candidates clarified their positions on Israel and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in speeches delivered at the AIPAC conference in 3/2016, as well as in the lead-up to the New York state primary on 4/19.
Although Clinton was the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, her main opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), had mounted a formidable challenge as the quarter opened. Sanders was winning states and accumulating delegates to the party’s nominating convention on the strength of his progressive platform and his criticisms of growing U.S. economic inequality, pressuring Clinton from the left. With the tense U.S.-Israeli relationship in the news and the New York primary looming, both candidates sought to distinguish themselves on the question of U.S. policy in the Middle East. Clinton, Pres. Obama’s former secy. of state, reiterated her long-standing fiercely pro-Israel position, telling AIPAC conference attendees on 3/21 that “the U.S. and Israel must be closer than ever, stronger than ever.” She condemned Hamas’s rocket attacks, virtually ignored Israel’s settlements, and generally pandered to conferees who interrupted her 55 times with applause, according to Salon (3/22). Sanders, on the other hand, did not attend the AIPAC conference. Although AIPAC organizers denied his request to deliver his speech via teleconference, he gave it anyway, while campaigning in Utah. The speech cleaved close to the Obama admin.’s policy, with Sanders calling for direct Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and a 2-state solution. Rhetorically, however, the Vermont senator diverged significantly from standard Democratic Party talking points on Israel and Palestine. Rather than pledging unyielding support for Israel, Sanders talked (3/21) about his time living on a kibbutz, described Israel’s summer 2014 assault on Gaza as “disproportionate,” and called for “achieving self-determination, civil rights, and economic well-being for the Palestinian people.”
Sanders’s speech put the Israeli-Palestinian conflict center stage in the Democratic primary battle, exposing a significant divide in the party. Over the course of 3 Israeli assaults on Gaza in the past 10 years, U.S. progressives had become increasingly frustrated with the Israeli govt. and more sympathetic to the Palestinians, and Sanders appealed to this growing constituency. Unsurprisingly, he came under fire from party elites, Israeli officials, and the Israel lobby. In an interview with the New York Daily News’s editorial board, Sanders reiterated (4/4) his description of Israel’s 2014 assault on Gaza as “disproportionate,” said there was a wide consensus that the IDF’s attacks were “indiscriminate,” and erroneously referred to “10,000 Gazans” killed in the assault (in fact, 2,251 were killed and around 11,000 were injured, according to the UN; see JPS 44 [1, 2]). Former Israeli amb. to the U.S. Michael Oren accused (4/7) Sanders of “blood libel”; the AntiDefamation League urged (4/6) him to “correct his misstatements”; and Clinton herself criticized (4/10) him and justified the IDF’s assault, saying “Hamas provokes Israel . . . and I think Israel has a right to defend itself.”
Amid controversy over the New York Daily News interview, the Sanders campaign hired (4/11) Simone Zimmerman as its national Jewish outreach coordinator. She had headed the campus arm of the liberal Zionist group J Street, J Street U, and was a leader in the antioccupation If Not Now movement. The proIsrael establishment immediately targeted Zimmerman, dredging up some of her old posts on social media platforms to delegitimize her. The Sanders campaign suspended her appointment on 4/14, hours before the Democratic debate in Brooklyn ahead of the 4/19 New York primary. Sanders did not temper his position on Israel, though. In the debate, he again highlighted the plight of the Palestinian people, drawing praise from U.S. Palestinian and progressive communities alike.
On the Republican side, Donald Trump faced no challenge to his position on the PalestinianIsraeli conflict, and by the end of the quarter he seemed to have assured the U.S. pro-Israel establishment of his dedication to their cause. Ahead of the AIPAC conference, however, uncertainty about his position arose. Trump had earlier stated (12/3) that he had “a real question as to whether or not both sides want to make [peace].” Then, on 2/16, he said he would be “neutral” on Israel and Palestine. Over the course of the quarter, he tacked further toward Republican orthodoxy and a full embrace of the current Israeli govt.’s positions. In his AIPAC conference speech (3/21), Trump pledged unconditional support for Israel and promised to strengthen sanctions on Iran. The same week, his 2 remaining Republican challengers—Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)—dropped out of the race. In connection with Israeli settlements, Trump told the Daily Mail, “I think Israel, they really have to keep going, they have to keep moving forward,” he said, adding, “I don’t think there should be a pause.”
The Ongoing Case of Israeli Spy Jonathan Pollard
After convicted Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard was released from prison last quarter (see JPS 45 [3]), his lawyers, Israeli officials, and several mbrs. of Congress appealed the terms of his parole. As the U.S. judicial system processed their complaints, the Israeli Knesset’s Ministerial Comm. on Legislation prepared to vote on a proposal that would award Pollard a lifetime stipend. Netanyahu intervened ahead of the 3/20 vote and had it postponed indefinitely. A source close to Netanyahu said (3/20) that the decision was made at the request of security officials, although it was clear that granting Pollard a stipend would have deleterious effects on the U.S.-Israeli relationship.
Dani Dayan: A Settler Consul in New York
Following the Brazilian govt.’s rejection of former settler leader Dani Dayan as amb. (see “Brazil” below), Netanyahu appointed (3/28) Dayan consul gen. in New York. Dayan immediately stirred controversy within the U.S. pro-Israel community when he told Israel’s i24news (3/27), “I prefer the attitude of AIPAC to that of J Street . . . the more anti-Israel you are, the more you are endorsed by J Street. That’s un-Jewish.” J Street criticized his appointment on 3/29, saying that “these kinds of slurs impugning our faith should simply be out-of-bounds for an official emissary of the Israeli govt.” On 3/31, Dayan issued an apology on Twitter that J Street’s pres. Jeremy Ben-Ami accepted in kind while acknowledging the growing divide in the U.S. Jewish community: “@danidayan really appreciate this. Have always valued engaging with you. Look forward to continuing to disagree in NY as we have in Israel!”
The PA and PLO on Trial
This quarter, the PA and PLO continued to appeal the U.S. District Court of New York’s 2/23/2015 ruling finding them liable for $655 m. in damages on terrorism charges brought by 10 families of U.S. victims of 6 attacks in Israel between 2002 and 2004. The 2d Circuit Court of Appeals heard the appeal on 4/12, when the Palestinians’ lawyer, Mitchell Berger, argued that the district court did not have jurisdiction to rule on the matter in the first place. He said, “[The families’] own experts said the brunt of the injury, which is the key question, was on Israel, not the U.S.” There was no ruling on the appeal this quarter.
Legislative Crackdown on BDS
Particularly at the state level, legislative crackdowns on the BDS movement, which had gathered momentum in each of the 3 preceding quarters, produced results. By the end of the quarter, legislatures in 20 states had considered bills that could undermine or destabilize BDS efforts. Consequently, 7 more states joined Illinois and South Carolina in putting anti-BDS laws on the books. Alabama barred (5/10) public contracts with companies that boycott anyone with whom the state enjoys free trade (including Israel); Arizona (3/17) and Georgia (3/26) specifically barred public contracts with companies boycotting Israel; Colorado (3/18), Florida (3/10), and Indiana (3/23) blocked their public employees’ retirement funds from investing in companies that boycott Israel; and Iowa (5/10) barred public contracts with such companies and prohibited its public employees’ retirement fund from investing in them.
At the national level, there were fewer new crackdowns on BDS, and no major changes among congressional or executive priorities. The most noteworthy development was the signing into law (2/24) by the pres. of the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 (see S. 644 at www.congressionalmonitor.org for more). This multifaceted trade bill, commonly known as the “customs bill,” included AIPAC-approved provisions ordering U.S. courts to disregard judgments in foreign courts based on BDS laws, requiring the pres. to report annually to Congress on BDS activities in the U.S., and laying out 3 anti-BDS objectives for the U.S. to pursue in trade negotiations: to discourage potential trading partners from prejudicing U.S.-Israel commercial activity, to eliminate politically motivated nontariff barriers on Israel, and to seek the termination of statesponsored boycotts of Israel, such as that of the Arab League. As he did after signing the Defending Public Safety Employees’ Retirement Act (see H.R. 2146 and JPS 45 [1]), which contained similar provisions, Obama issued (2/24) a signing statement reiterating his specific opposition to BDS, as defined in the bill. Because anti-BDS provisions in S. 644 conflated Israel and “Israeli-controlled territories” (i.e., the oPt), they were contrary to his admin.’s policy opposing Israel’s settlements; therefore, implementing that aspect of the bill would “interfere with [his] constitutional authority to conduct diplomacy.” Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) promised (2/26) to use Congress’s “oversight capacity to ensure [the provisions] are faithfully enforced,” but it was unclear how and when he planned to do so, and there were no further developments through the end of the quarter.