The Palestine Chronology

In West Jerusalem, a Palestinian man succumbs to injuries sustained during a funeral procession on 9/7. Off the coast of the Gaza Strip nr. Rafah, Israeli naval forces open fire on Palestinian fishing boats and detain 3 fishermen. In the West Bank, Israeli soldiers shoot and wound a Palestinian as they accompany Israeli settlers on an incursion nr. Nablus. The IDF patrols in Hebron, al-‘Arub r.c., and 1 village nearby; sets up 2 new checkpoints in a village nr. Bethlehem after raiding a school in the area on 12/28. In East Jerusalem, Israeli forces detain 2 Palestinian women outside Haram al-Sharif; demolish 4 homes, a restaurant, and a butcher shop in Jabal Mukabir. (MNA, WAFA 12/30; PCHR 12/31; OCHA 1/15)

The UNSC rejects the amended Palestinian draft res., submitted by Jordan on 12/29, with 8 mbrs. voting in favor, 2 opposing, and 5 abstaining. The Palestinian leadership announces an emergency session on 12/31 to discuss its next steps. (AP, HA, MNA, REU 12/30; TOI, YA 12/31)

The PA unity govt. delegation that traveled to Gaza on 12/29 meets with local officials in Gaza City and works out an agreement on the civil servant employment crisis. Spokesperson Ihab Bseiso says that the PA will guarantee the positions of all 70,000 employees who were laid off when the Hamas-run govt. came to power in 2007 and offer remaining positions to employees of the Hamas-run govt., effectively firing all 50,000 employees hired by Hamas. Hamas officials criticize the agreement and dozens of former govt. employees demonstrate outside the meetings. (MNA, WAFA 12/30)

The U.S. imposes sanctions on 9 new targets that the Treasury Dept. says are either facilitating Iran’s efforts to avoid sanctions or contributing to human rights abuses. (JP, REU 12/30)

PLO Executive Comm. mbr. Hanan Ashrawi said that a UNGA vote on Palestinian statehood would likely be held on 11/29/12, the 65th anniversary of the UN partition plan for Palestine, and not postponed until next year’s session. Israeli vice premier Moshe Ya’alon described Abbas’s speech at the UN as proof that the Palestinian leader has no intention of making peace with Israel. (JP 9/28)

In the Gaza Strip, IDF troops on the n. Gaza border nr. Bayt Lahiya fire on 2 Palestinian fishermen tending their nets on the beach nr. the fence, killing 1 and wounding 1. It is the 1st fisherman fatality recorded since 9/2010. In the West Bank, Palestinians, along with Israeli and international activists, hold weekly nonviolent protests against Israeli land confiscation and settlement expansion in Bil‘in nr. Ramallah and Kafr Qaddum nr. Qalqilya, and are attacked by IDF soldiers with tear gas. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in 1 village nr. Ramallah and 1 village nr. Tulkarm at night; conducts arrest raids and house searches in 1 village nr. Qalqilya at night. (IMEMC 9/28; PCHR 10/4; OCHA 10/5)

Jordan names diplomat Walid Obeidat as the new ambassador to Israel, a position vacant since 2010, when the previous ambassador was not replaced once his term expired. (AFP 9/28; BBC 10/9)

Gaza’s power plant begins operating on 4 turbines for the first time since 2006, after Israel (in a gesture to mark Ramadan) allowed the UN Development Program to import new transformers to replace those destroyed by an Israeli air strike in 2006. The improved capacity of the plant and additional Israeli fuel imports to mark Ramadan reduce rolling blackouts across Gaza to 8–10 hrs./day (down from around 12 hrs./day in recent months). The IDF patrols in 2 villages nr. Jericho and Ramallah in the morning; conducts synchronized patrols in 4 villages nr. Jenin at midday; patrols in alNabi Salih in the afternoon, firing rubbercoated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at stone-throwing Palestinian youths who confront them (causing no serious injuries); and conducts synchronized patrols in 2 villages nr. Jericho in the evening. (PCHR 8/2; OCHA 8/3)

PA Fin. Min. Nabil Kassis says the government is finding it harder each month to meet its routine budget expenses because donors, including the U.S. and Arab states, have failed to fulfill their 2012 pledges. The PA had hoped to close a $1.1 b. gap in its $4 b. budget, but is expected to fall short by $250,000, despite increasing taxes and making cuts to subsidies. (WT 7/27)

Republican candidate Mitt Romney begins a 6-day international tour of Britain, Israel, and Poland to point up his foreign policy skills. The theme of the trip is ‘‘the importance of locking arms with the nation’s allies.’’ Aides say that on the Middle East, Romney intends to highlight differences with Obama over plans for the peace process, support for Israel, Iran’s nuclear program, and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. (WT 7/26; see QU in JPS 165 for details.)

The International Israel Allies Caucus Foundation (formed by Israeli Knesset mbrs. and mbrs. of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008) sponsors 2 panels on Capitol Hill to mark nearly 20 yrs. since the signing of the 9/2003 Oslo Accord and to discuss how to move the peace process forward. Speakers include former State Dept. adviser to the negotiations Aaron David Miller, Likud MK and avid settlement supporter Danny Danon (who supports annexation of the West Bank except for the Palestinian population, which would be left to fend for itself), right-wing settler leader and former MK Rabbi Benny Elon (who supports annexation of the West Bank and creation of a Palestinian state in Jordan), and Israeli negotiator to the Oslo talks Yossi Beilin (who says: ‘‘My interest is not necessarily a Palestinian state. All I want is a Jewish majority forever.’’), and Jerusalem Post dep. managing editor Caroline Glick (who says Oslo was destined to fail because Palestinian leaders ‘‘raised a generation of kids who value death’’). The only representative of the Palestinian viewpoint, American Task Force on Palestine (ATFP) dir. Ghaith al-Omari, praises Oslo for establishing a sense of ‘‘mutual respect’’ necessary for moving talks forward and calls for a quick resumption of negotiations. Elon responds that there will be no progress until the Palestinians understand that the Jewish people ‘‘are back in Zion, back in Jerusalem.’’ (WJW 7/26)

The IDF makes a brief incursion into s. Gaza to level land and clear lines of sight along the border fence e. of al-Qarara. OCHA reports that in the previous week or so, 5 Palestinian children were injured when they accidentally triggered unexploded IDF ordnance that they found near Gaza’s al-Bureij r.c. OCHA also reports that since 6/24, Israel has allowed Gazans to export 2 truckloads of garments to both Jordan and Britain. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts synchronized patrols in 2 villages nr. Tulkarm in the morning; conducts other daytime patrols in 2 villages nr. Ramallah; patrols in 2 villages nr. Ramallah late at night (firing rubber coated-steel bullets, tear gas, and percussion grenades to disperse stone-throwing Palestinians who confront them in 1 instance, causing no reported injuries); and conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Bayt Umar and Hebron, and nr. Qalqilya. (PCHR 7/12; OCHA 7/13)

Most Palestinian hunger strikers agree to a deal brokered by Egypt and Jordan to halt their strike in exchange for agreement from Israel: (1) to free 320 administrative detainees at the end of their current 6-mo. sentences, provided no new evidence against them is found; (2) to end solitary confinements; (3) to allow prisoners from Gaza to receive visits from immediate relatives (family visits from Gaza were suspended in 2006 after Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit was captured), and (4) to return the bodies of 100 Palestinians who were killed in fighting in Israel and buried there. Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank take to the streets to celebrate. At least 8 Palestinian detainees who went on strike before the mass hunger strike was declared on 4/17 are expected to continue their fasts until they are released—these include Islamic Jihad’s Diab and Halahleh who have not eaten for 77 days and are hospitalized in critical condition. (NYT, WP 5/15)

Israel allows Gazans to export textiles for the 1st time since mid-2007. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts latenight patrols in 1 village nr. Qalqilya. (PCHR 5/17; OCHA 5/18)

IDF troops on the s. Gaza border fire toward residential and agricultural areas e. of Rafah, wounding a Palestinian who is 1,000 m. from the border (well beyond the no-go zone). In the West Bank, the IDF conducts daytime patrols in 2 villages nr. Ramallah and 1 nr. Jenin, and late-night patrols in Tulkarm. Palestinians rally outside Ofer prison nr. Ramallah to show solidarity with hunger-striking Palestinian prisoners; IDF troops fire on the demonstrators, wounding 4. For the 2d time in a week (see 4/24), Jewish settlers fr. Yitzhar settlement nr. Nablus, escorted by IDF troops, throw stones at a Palestinian elementary school in nearby Ourif village; when local Palestinians throw stones back at the settlers, IDF soldiers fire tear gas at them to force them to disperse, causing no serious injuries. Jewish settlers accompanied by IDF troops raid and occupy a plot of Palestinian land in Imatin village nr. Qalqilya, arresting 2 Palestinian shepherds on the land. Jewish settlers block Palestinian traffic on the Nablus–Ramallah road nr. the IDF’s Za’atra checkpoint s. of Nablus. (PCHR 5/3; OCHA 5/4)

PA Communications M Mashhour Abudaka resigns, citing unspecified personal reasons, though many insiders believe (see NYT 5/7) that he is strongly opposed to the recent string of arrests of journalists and public commentators who have criticized Abbas’s administration, particularly the 2/2012 arrest of journalist Rami Samara for criticizing him personally; Samara was released after 2 weeks. (NYT 5/7) (see 4/5/12, 4/15/12, and Quarterly Update in JPS 164 for details)

Jordan’s reformist PM, Awn alKhasawneh, suddenly resigns after only 6 mos. in office in a move seen (e.g., WP 4/27) as reflecting his differences with King Abdullah over the pace and extent of government reforms. Abdullah replaces him with veteran politician and close ally Fayiz Tarawnah. (WP 4/27)

Weekly Palestinian protests against the separation wall, land confiscations, and settlement expansion this week coincide with Land Day, the annual event to protest Israel’s discriminatory land policies. Israel seals the Erez crossing for 2 days (3/30–31), citing security concerns. Palestinians (accompanied by Israeli and international activists) hold their weekly nonviolent demonstrations in Bil’in, Kafr Qaddum, Nabi Salih, and Ni’lin (with protests in Bil’in and Ni’lin also calling for reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas). IDF soldiers fire live ammunition (Nabi Salih only), rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at these protesters, injuring 11 Palestinians (including a child) and 1 international (4 Palestinians are wounded by live fire in Nabi Salih; the rest are hit by tear-gas canisters in Kafr Qaddum). Palestinians hold at least 5 other Land Day rallies in the West Bank (outside Rachel’s Tomb in Bethlehem, outside Ofer Prison and at 2 points along the separation wall nr. Ramallah, and at the Qalandia crossing n. of Jerusalem). IDF soldiers fire live ammunition (Ofer and Qalandia only), rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at these protesters, injuring 19 (including 2 children; at least 7 are hit by live fire and 1 is seriously injured by a tear-gas canister to the head). In Gaza, Hamas authorities allow 1,000s of Palestinians to conduct a nonviolent demonstration nearly a mile from the Erez crossing, deploying police to prevent the protesters from marching to the border. Nonetheless, IDF troops on the Gaza border fire on the demonstration, killing 1 Palestinian and wounding 37 (1 seriously; including 16 children). A major protest planned for East Jerusalem does not materialize. Inside Israel, some 2,000 Israeli Palestinians demonstrate in the Galilee, with no violence reported. (NYT, WP 3/31; OCHA, PCHR 4/5)

Nonviolent Land Day protests are also held in Jordan and Lebanon. In Lebanon, 100s of Palestinians and Lebanese gather at Beaufort castle, 9 miles fr. the Israeli border, where Lebanese military forces deploy to prevent them fr. marching to the border. In Jordan, some 20,000 Palestinians march toward the West Bank border but stop 4 miles. No violence is reported in either case. (NYT, WP 3/31)

The IDF patrols in 3 villages nr. Ramallah and 1 nr. Jericho in the morning; patrols in 2 villages nr. Jenin (firing stun grenades at stone-throwing Palestinian youths who confront them, causing no injuries) and 1 nr. Qalqilya in the afternoon; conducts late-night patrols in Jericho and nearby `Ayn al-Sultan r.c., 1 village nr. Hebron, and 1 nr. Ramallah. (PCHR 4/5)

PA Pres. Abbas meets with Quartet special envoy Blair in Jordan before leaving for Cairo to meet with Arab League FMs. Blair urges Abbas to continue low-level talks on borders; says he has urged Israel to make goodwill gestures to revive talks, including easing security restrictions in the West Bank and releasing prisoners. (UPI, WAFA 2/11; YA 2/12)

Unidentified Palestinians fire a Qassam rocket fr. Gaza into Israel, causing no damage or injuries. In response, Israeli warplanes make 4 late-night air strikes on s. Gaza, targeting an open area nr. al-Shuka and 3 Palestinian homes in Gaza City, al-Qarara, and Rafah (suspected weapons depots and entrances to smuggling tunnels), killing 1 Palestinian civilian, wounding another, and causing heavy damage. The IDF patrols in Tulkarm and 2 villages nr. Jenin in the morning; patrols in another 2 villages nr. Jenin in the afternoon (in 1 instance firing tear gas and stun grenades at stone-throwing youths who confront them); conducts late-night patrols in 1 village each nr. Jenin, Jericho, Qalqilya, Ramallah, and Tulkarm; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Qalqilya and Ramallah. Palestinian students at Birzeit University hold a nonviolent march to Israel’s Ofer prison nr. Ramallah to show support for hunger-striking Islamic Jihad prisoner Khader Adnan; IDF troops outside the prison fire rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, stun grenades at the protesters who reply with stones; 4 journalists and several protesters are lightly injured. Jewish settlers fr. Susia settlement in Hebron attack 6 Palestinians planting almond trees on a 20-d. plot nearby (moderately injuring them) and uproot the newly planted seedlings; the IDF observes but does not intervene. (JP 2/11, 2/12; PCHR 2/16; OCHA 2/17)

UN Secy.-Gen Ban meets with Jordan’s King Abdallah and FM Judeh in Amman to discuss the latest round of Israeli-Palestinian exploratory talks and prospects for continuing discussions. (JPI 2/10)

IDF troops on the n. Gaza border fire warning shots at a group of Palestinians and international activists marching to the Bayt Hanun crossing to protest Israel’s imposition of a no-go zone, causing no serious injuries. IDF troops on the c. Gaza border fire warning shots at a group of Palestinians trapping birds nr. the border, wounding 1. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in 1 village nr. Jenin in the afternoon, firing tear gas, stun grenades at stonethrowing youths who confront them, causing no serious injuries; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Hebron; conducts late-night patrols in 1 village nr. Jenin. Palestinians and international and Israeli activists stage a nonviolent protest march to an IDF checkpoint outside Bayt Umar nr. Hebron to mark the 1-yr. anniversary of the killing of a local Palestinian by a settler; IDF troops beat and fire stun grenades at the demonstrators, moderately injuring 2 Palestinians and 1 Israeli journalists. Israeli police in East Jerusalem issue an order banning Palestinian journalist and Jerusalem resident Rasim Ubeidat fr. entering the West Bank until 7/9/2012; no cause is given. (PCHR 2/2; OCHA 2/3)

Israeli PM Netanyahu wins the Likud primaries with 75% of the vote. Some analysts (e.g., WP 2/2) see the move to hold a snap primary as strengthening Netanyahu’s base in preparation for possibly calling early elections in 10/2012 (a year ahead of schedule) to give the opposition less time to organize. However, others note (e.g., WP 2/1) that Netanyahu’s only challenger, ultranationalist settler Moshe Feiglin, made a strong showing, indicating that many Likud supporters feel Netanyahu is “too soft on peacemaking with the Palestinians.” (WP 2/1, 2/2)

The IDF makes a brief incursion into demolished Dahaniyya airport site in s. Gaza, arresting 2 Palestinians (including 1 Fatah mbr.). The IDF conducts morning patrols in 3 villages nr. Ramallah, 2 nr. Tulkarm, and 1 nr. Jericho; conducts afternoon patrols in Tulkarm and 1 nearby village, plus 1 village nr. Ramallah; conducts late-night patrols in al-Bireh, Jericho, 1 village nr. Qalqilya, and 1 nr. Ramallah; conducts late-night house searches nr. Qalqilya. In East Jerusalem, Israeli police seal for 30 days a Palestinian charity and a kindergarten with alleged ties to Hamas. (PCHR 2/2; OCHA 2/3)

Hamas leader Mishal arrives in Amman with Qatar’s crown prince Shaykh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and senior Hamas delegation (including his deputy, Musa Abu Marzuq, and 4 other senior officials) to meet with King Abdallah. Mishal says Hamas is eager to establish “unique relations” with Jordan, would “respect the limits and ceilings of any relationship determined by the two sides,” and would seek to maintain the security and stability of Jordan, but he does not say whether Hamas has asked to reopen a Hamas office in Jordan. Most analysts believe (e.g., NYT 1/30) that Hamas will not centralize in 1 new location but will diversify. Cambridge expert Khaled Hroub says, “with newly emerging governments in the post-Arab Spring era, many of them Islamist, Hamas wants to be hosted and embraced and have offices in these countries.” He also argues that this marks a “paradigm shift” in Hamas led by Mishal to embrace the Arab Spring’s promotion of nonviolence, which would make it easier for new governments to embrace and support Hamas. (NYT, WP 1/30)

In a State of the Union address devoted to domestic affairs, Pres. Obama pointedly calls on Syrian pres. Asad to realize “that the forces of change cannot be reversed and that human dignity cannot be denied” and urges the international community to “isolate” his regime. He also stresses that the U.S. will not take any options (i.e., a military strike) off the table in dealing with Iran and emphasizes “our ironclad commitment—and I mean ironclad—to Israel’s security.” (NYT, WP, WT 1/25; WJW 2/2)

Unidentified Palestinians fire 2 Qassam rockets fr. Gaza into Israel, causing no damage or injuries. IDF troops on the n. Gaza border nr. the Erez crossing fire warning shots and tear gas at a group of Palestinians and international activists staging a nonviolent march to the crossing to protest Israel’s imposition of a no-go zone; no serious injuries are reported. With a sharp increase in the number of Gazans seeking to exit to Egypt through the Rafah border, the Gaza Interior Min. reimposes requirements (lifted on 12/18/11) that Gazans register with the ministry before traveling. In the West Bank, the IDF demolishes 8 Palestinian homes in Anata village nr. East Jerusalem, displacing 52 Palestinians, including 29 children; escorts 100s of Jewish settlers to pray at Joseph’s tomb in Balata village nr. Nablus; patrols in 1 village nr. Salfit in the morning, briefly detaining several Palestinian for questioning; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Hebron and Nablus. (JP 1/24; PCHR 1/26; OCHA 1/27)

After a long delay, Hamas authorities in Gaza allow the Central Elections Commission to open a voter registration office in Gaza to prepare for eventual elections in implementation of the 5/2010 national unity deal. (WP 1/25)

Jordan says King Abdallah will receive Hamas leader Mishal on 1/29, when he makes his 1st official visit to Jordan in 13 yrs. Officials say that the kingdom will continue to bar Hamas for undertaking political activities on its soil. Analysts view this as: (1) Jordan trying to take a more active diplomatic role and say reopening diplomatic ties with Hamas could be a step toward trying to broker reconciliation btwn. Hamas and Fatah (WP 1/25); and (2) the king engaging with Islamists, who have gained strength regionally during the Arab Spring, to quiet Jordan’s own Islamist opposition. (WP, WT 1/25)

Police in Azerbaijan arrest several people allegedly linked to an Iranian-backed Hizballah cell for plotting an attack against Israeli amb. to Azerbaijan Michael Lotem and on a Jewish school in Baku. (JPI 2/3; NHR 2/21)

A Lebanese court sentences fmr. brig. gen. Fayiz Karam to 2 yrs. in jail (including time served) for giving classified information to Israel. Karam, jailed in mid-2009, will be released in 6 mos. (NYT 1/25)

In Washington for talks with Pres. Obama, King Abdallah of Jordan tells reporters that he is convinced that Israel and the Palestinians are each making sincere efforts to find a way to jumpstart serious peace talks, but cautions there are serious obstacles to overcome and time is running out. Separately, State Dept. spokeswoman Victoria Nuland says that the U.S. knows that the 1/26/12 target date for restarting final status negotiations is “out there, [but] we do not want to see it be a rigid sort of straitjacket that chills the atmosphere.” In Israel, PM Netanyahu tells lawmakers in a closed mtg. that “the Palestinians have no interest in entering peace talks.” (WP 1/17)

IDF troops on the n. Gaza border nr. Bayt Hanun fire warning shots at Palestinians and international activists staging a nonviolent march to the border fence to protest Israel’s imposition of a no-go zone; no injuries are reported. The IDF makes a late-night incursion into al-Shuka village in s. Gaza to arrest a mbr. of the Islamic Jihad’s al-Quds Brigade. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in Tulkarm in the morning and afternoon; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Hebron, Nablus. (WT 1/15; PCHR 1/19; OCHA 1/20).

Hamas officials announce that the movement’s leadership has decided to evacuate their families and most personnel fr. Syria in response to the deteriorating security situation; 3 senior officials (Musa Abu Marzuq, Muhammad Naser, and Izzat Rishiq) will remain in Damascus. Meanwhile, Hamas’s former rep. in London, Mustafa Lidawi, says that Hamas leader Mishal plans to retire as politburo head (a position he has held since 1996) when the organization holds elections in the coming months to allow “a fresh leader to steer Hamas towards a new strategy,” but other Hamas officials deny he has made a final decision. (Guardian, WT, al-Watan 1/18; NYT 1/30)

The Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) formally apologizes to Israel for allowing a Hamas mbr. to take part in a dialogue in Geneva (ca. 1/14) on Israel’s treatment of Palestinian prisoners as part of a Palestinian delegation and vows that Hamas mbrs. will be barred fr. future IPU events. Israel had threatened (1/16) to withdraw fr. the IPU in protest. The IPU is a nongovernmental organization with permanent observer status at the UN. It was formed in 1889 to arbitrate conflicts but has evolved into an organization that promotes democracy and interparliamentary dialogue. (JPI 1/27; see also AFP 1/16)

Israeli hackers bring down the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency and the Abu Dhabi Securities and Exchange websites, release the email addresses and passwords of 89 Saudi university students, and steal and threaten to release the Facebook login information for 30,000 account holders in Muslim countries in retaliation for the 1/16 denial of service attacks on the TASE and El Al and the 1/6 leak of Israeli credit card information. One of the Israeli hackers, Anonymous 972, issues a statement saying “Usually we do not like to hurt innocent sites, but there is now a cyber war, and every war has victims. . . . Every time an Israeli site get[s] hacked, the same thing will happen to Saudi sites.” The Israeli hacker who claims to have the Facebook information, Hannibal Hacker, also claims that he could publish bank account details of 10 million Arabs and the credit card details of 4 million Arabs if cyberattacks on Israel continue. (ZDNet 1/19; HackRead 1/25; JPI 1/27)

Palestinian and Israeli negotiators hold a 3d round of preliminary talks in Jordan. No details are released. (WP 1/17)

The IDF patrols in 3 villages nr. Jenin, 2 nr. Ramallah, and 1 nr. Salfit during the day; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in ‘Ayn Bayt alMa’a r.c. nr. Nablus, in Jenin, and nr. Qalqilya (including rearresting 1 Palestinian freed in the 10/2011 Shalit prisoner release). Jewish settlers fr. Tal Rumayda settlement in Hebron set fire to a nearby Palestinian vehicle. (PCHR 1/19; OCHA 1/20)

Abbas says that Israel has offered nothing new in talks in Jordan, but that 2 more mtgs. are planned in hopes that the sides can agree on baselines for resuming negotiations before the Quartet’s 1/26/12 target date. (NYT 1/13)

Israel’s High Court upholds (6-5) a controversial law that bans most Palestinians who marry Israeli citizens fr. obtaining citizenship on the ground this would pose a security threat. IDF troops on the c. Gaza border fire 2 artillery shells at a group of armed Palestinians nr. the border e. of al-Bureij r.c., moderately wounding 2. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in 4 villages nr. Ramallah and 2 nr. Tulkarm (synchronized) in the morning; in 2 villages nr. Jenin (firing tear gas and percussion grenades at stone-throwing youths in 1 instance), 2 nr. Jericho, and 1 nr. Salfit in the afternoon; and in Birzeit late at night. The IDF also conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Nabi Saleh. (WP 1/13; PCHR 1/19; OCHA 1/20)

In Amman, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators meet with Quartet reps. (including special envoy Blair) and then with Jordanian FM Nasser Judeh. Judeh says that the Palestinian team, as requested, turned over its position papers on security and borders and that the Israeli team formally received them. The sides have agreed to hold talks “on a continual basis” in Jordan to explore reviving formal negotiations and to observe a media blackout, with only Judeh issuing public statements after the sessions. Israel does not submit its own comprehensive position papers, but pledges “that through this continuing dialogue there will be an Israeli counterproposal or an Israeli response.” (WJW 1/3; NYT, WP 1/4; WT 1/5)

IDF troops on the n. Gaza border fire warning shots at Palestinians scavenging for construction materials inside the demolished Erez industrial zone, forcing them to flee. IDF troops make a brief incursion into s. Gaza to level land and clear lines of sight along the border fence e. of Abasan and Khuza, firing toward nearby residential areas to keep Palestinians indoors (causing no reported injuries). Israeli naval vessels fire on Palestinian fishing boats off the n. Gaza coast, forcing them to return to shore. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts morning patrols in Jenin and (synchronized) in 3 villages nr. Ramallah; conducts evening patrols in Tulkarm and 1 village nr. Jenin; conducts latenight arrest raids, house searches nr. Qalqilya. OCHA reports that since 12/21, the IDF has demolished 25 water-related structures (wells, cisterns, water pools, and water storage tanks) used for domestic and agricultural purposes; 21 were in Hebron governorate, 4 in Salfit governorate. OCHA also reports that in the past 2 wks., the IDF has demolished the remaining structures on the Palestinian side of the Qarni crossing, which Israel closed on 3/2/11 when the Kerem Shalom crossing became fully operational. (OCHA, PCHR 1/5)

The Israeli High Court accepts an agmt. reached between the state and settlers under which the state agrees to suspend plans to demolish immediately 9 structures in the Ramat Gilad unauthorized settlement outpost, giving the settlers until 3/2012 to remove the structures themselves. The settlers claim that the state has agreed in exchange to expand the zoning boundaries for nearby Karnei Shomron settlement to include Ramat Gilad (retroactively legalizing the outpost), but the official documents submitted to the court do not say this. (JPI 1/3)

Jordan announces that Israel and the Palestinians have agreed to send their chief negotiators to Jordan on 1/3 to meet with Quartet officials. Though the parties stress that the meeting will not be a formal negotiating session, it will mark the 1st time the negotiators have met since 9/2010. The Quartet hopes that Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat and Netanyahu’s personal emissary Yitzhak Molcho will present their positions on security and borders and agree on the agenda for future direct talks, technically relaunching negotiations by the Quartet’s selfimposed 1/26/12 deadline (see QU in JPS 162 for background). Erakat says the Palestinian demand for a settlement freeze still stands and that the Palestinians have agreed to attend out of respect for Jordan. (HA 1/1; NYT, WP, WT 1/2)

Unidentified Palestinians fire 2 mortars fr. Gaza into Israel, causing no damage or injuries; Israel claims the mortars carried white phosphorous that Palestinians would have scavenged fr. Israeli munitions fired into Gaza during OCL. The IDF conducts morning patrols in 3 villages northwest of Jenin (firing rubber-coated steel bullets at stonethrowing youths in 1 instance, causing no serious injuries); conducts synchronized afternoon patrols in 2 villages nr. Ramallah; conducts evening patrols in 2 villages nr. Ramallah (firing rubbercoated steel bullets at stone-throwing youths in 1 instance, causing no serious injuries), and 1 each nr. Jericho and Salfit; conducts late-night patrols in Jericho, Birzeit, 2 villages nr. Ramallah, and 1 village nr. Tulkarm; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Hebron, Jenin, Nablus. (JP 1/1, 1/2; OCHA, PCHR 1/5)

The last U.S. combat troops pull out of Iraq 2 wks. ahead of Obama’s 12/31/11 target date; 1,000s of U.S. diplomats and contractors remain in the country, as well as 150 U.S. soldiers tasked to train Iraqi security forces. (National Public Radio, REU 12/18; NYT 12/19)

Israel frees 550 Palestinian prisoners in the 2d stage of the swap that freed IDF Cpl. Gilad Shalit in 10/2011; 41 are released to Gaza, more than 500 to the West Bank, a few to East Jerusalem and Jordan. Under the terms of the deal, Israel picked which prisoners to free and picked mostly Fatahaffiliated West Bankers as a gesture to Abbas; none are mbrs. of Hamas or Islamic Jihad or were involved in killing or wounding anyone; Palestinians complain that “many of those being released were due to get out within months anyway. . . . If Israel had wanted to make a real good-will gesture, the list would have been totally different.” (NYT, WP 12/19)

Stone-throwing Palestinian youths clash with IDF at the Beitunia checkpoint where some of the Palestinian prisoners freed by Israel are released, leaving 10s of Palestinians and 1 IDF soldier injured. Elsewhere in the West Bank, the IDF patrols in Jenin in the morning and in 3 villages nr. Jenin, Qalqilya, and Salfit in the evening (firing tear gas at stone-throwing youths in Jenin); makes a brief incursion into Qalqilya where they set up 2 checkpoints, detain 2 PA security forces officers for several hours, and summon 1 Palestinian for questioning. Jewish settlers block a Palestinian road nr. Moshe Zouhar settlement outpost nr. Qalqilya. Israeli naval vessels fire on Palestinian fishing boats off the Gaza City shore, detaining 1 boat and questioning 4 Palestinians (3 are released, 1 is sent to Israel for an unrelated medical issue). Gaza’s Interior Min. drops requirements for Gazans to register in advance of leaving Gaza through the Rafah crossing. The Israeli Housing Min. published tenders for construction of 1,028 Jewish settlement units in East Jerusalem (500 in Har Homa, 348 in Beitar Ilit, and 180 in Givat Ze’ev). The Gaza Central Drug Store receives an urgent shipment of medicine and supplies fr. the West Bank, enough to replenish its stores for several weeks (see 12/6/12). (HA 12/18; NYT, WP 12/19; PCHR 12/22; OCHA 12/23)

IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz announces that in light of the dramatically increasing number of covert foreign operations Israel has undertaken in the past year, the Israeli DMin. has formed a new operational branch called the Depth Corps specifically to handle special operations “deep in enemy territory.” The new branch (separate fr. the existing Northern, Southern, and Central Commands) will be headed by former special operations commander Maj. Gen. Shai Avital and will pull and coordinate resources fr. the military’s various elite commando units on an ad hoc basis, depending on the mission. While Israel does not confirm or deny covert operations abroad, media reports over the past year have indicated that Israel has carried out operations in Sudan (targeting arms traffic to Hizballah and Hamas), Iran, Lebanon, and Syria. According to HA, since most recent covert ops have targeted Iran, IDF insiders often refer to the Depth Corps as “Iran Command.” (AFP, IHY 12/16; HA 12/18; JPI 2/10)

IDF troops on the n. Gaza border fire warning shots at Palestinians hunting birds nr. the no-go zone, forcing them to leave the area. Israeli naval vessels fire on Palestinian fishing boats off the n. Gaza coast, forcing them to return to shore. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in 4 villages nr. Ramallah during the day; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Bethlehem. Palestinians (sometimes accompanied by Israeli and international activists) hold weekly nonviolent demonstrations against the separation wall, land confiscations, and settlement expansion in Bil’in, Kafr Qaddum, Nabi Salih, and Ni’lin; demonstrations in Bil’in also call for national reconciliation. IDF soldiers fire rubbercoated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at the protesters; 3 Palestinians and 1 Israeli in Bil’in are hit and moderately injured by tear gas canisters; 2 Palestinian journalists (for Associated Press and Palestine TV) and 3 international activists are arrested in Nabi Salih. (PCHR 12/8; OCHA 12/9)

Speaking at the Brookings Institute’s Saban Center in Washington, U.S. Defense Secy. Leon Panetta states that the “firm principles” on which U.S. Middle East policy is based are: (1) the U.S.’s “unshakable” commitment to Israel, (2) maintenance of regional stability, and (3) preventing Iran fr. obtaining nuclear weapons (by military means if necessary). However, he also says Israel bears significant blame for a peace process that “has been effectively put on hold” and must do more to revive peace talks and improve relations with Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey. (NYT, WP 12/3)

Israeli PM Netanyahu says that since the 11/24 Abbas-Mishal meeting seemed more symbolic than substantive and the PLO/PA has not made moves since the 11/1/11 UNESCO vote to gain membership in other UN organizations, he is considering releasing VAT taxes. (NYT 11/29) (see 11/23/11)

King Abdallah of Jordan hosts Israeli pres. Shimon Peres in Amman to discuss reviving Israeli-Palestinian talks. (NYT 11/29; JPI 12/9)

Israeli naval vessels fire warning shots at Palestinian fishing boats off the n. Gaza coast, detaining and confiscating the boat, arresting 1 fisherman, and returning another fisherman to Gaza through the Erez crossing. Late at night, IDF troops on the n. Gaza border responding to 2 loud explosions inside Gaza in an open area n. of Bayt Lahiya fire into Gaza for 20 mins., causing no reported damage or injuries. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in 3 villages each nr. Qalqilya and Ramallah and 1 nr. Salfit during the day; conducts late-night patrols in Jericho. An Israeli military court convicts a 2d Palestinian teenager fr. Awarta in the murder of 5 Jewish settlers in Itamar on 3/11/11; another Palestinian teen was convicted on 9/13/11. (PCHR 12/1; OCHA 12/2; JPI 12/9)

In the 1st Lebanese-Israeli crossborder attack since 10/2009, unidentified assailants fire 3 rockets fr. s. Lebanon into n. Israel, damaging 2 buildings in the western Galilee, but causing no injuries. Israel responds with artillery fire, causing no reported damage or injuries. UNIFIL calls for “maximum restraint.” (DS, NYT 11/29; NYT, WP, WT 11/30)

U.S. Dep. Secy. of State Burns meets with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss ways of reviving peace talks with the Palestinians. U.S. officials say that they are trying to find ways around Palestinian demands for a settlement freeze in East Jerusalem and the West Bank, but give no details. (NYT 11/22; JPI 12/2)

The IDF makes a late-night incursion into s. Gaza, patrolling in and firing on residential areas of Rafah, causing no injuries and making no arrests. Israeli naval vessels fire on Palestinian fishing boats off the n. Gaza coast, forcing them back to shore. In the West Bank, the IDF raids and searches the home of a PA police officer nr. Jenin, arresting him; patrols in 7 villages nr. Ramallah, in 1 instance firing rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at stone-throwing Palestinian youths who confront them. (PCHR 11/24; OCHA 11/25)

PA Tourism and Antiquities M Hamdan Taha says that now that Palestine has full membership in UNESCO (see QU in JPS 162), it is planning to seek world heritage status for the old cities of Hebron and Jericho. An application for Bethlehem is already in the works and is expected to have a better chance now that Palestine has membership. The PA also plans to seek recovery of artifacts looted by Israel, increase funds for preservation and excavations, and use its status to force Israel to stop calling West Bank sites “Israeli antiquities.” (WP 11/22)

King Abdallah of Jordan makes an official visit to Ramallah (his 1st in 10 yrs.) to hold talks with PA pres. Abbas on their independent efforts to reconcile with Hamas and personally to inform Abbas that Jordan has invited Damascus-based Hamas leader Khalid Mishal (barred fr. visiting Jordan since 1999) for an official visit to Amman. The king stresses that any improvement in ties with Hamas is not intended as a move against the PA or as a gesture to Jordan’s Islamist opposition. The U.S. reportedly has expressed displeasure to Jordan over the Mishal visit and hinted that U.S. aid could be cut if Jordan reconciles with Hamas. (NYT, WP 11/22; JPI 12/2)

As the quarter opens, Israel maintains a tight siege on Hamas-controlled Gaza, imposing a 300-meter no-go zone inside the full length of the Gaza border and limiting the Palestinian fishing zone off Gaza to 500–1,000 m. off Bayt Lahiya and Rafah and 3 naut. mi. elsewhere. In the West Bank, governed by the Fatahled Palestinian Authority (PA), Israeli military operations are relatively low. Israeli troops on the Gaza border fatally shoot a mentally handicapped Palestinian teenager who approaches the border fence e. of Dayr al-Balah in c. Gaza. In the West Bank, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) patrols 6 villages nr. Jericho, Qalqilya, Ramallah, and Tulkarm during the day and 2 villages nr. Jenin and Ramallah late at night. An Israeli military court says it is holding Samer Allawi, a senior Palestinian journalist who serves as al-Jazeera satellite network’s Kabul bureau chief, on suspicion of being a Hamas mbr. but has not yet indicted him; the IDF confirms that it detained him on 8/9/11 at a border crossing to Jordan when he attempted leave the West Bank, where he had visited family in Nablus; Allawi denies any Hamas connection. (AFP 8/16; JTA, WP, WT 8/17; PCHR 8/18; OCHA 8/19)

Unidentified Palestinians fire a Qassam rocket fr. Gaza into Israel, causing no damage or injuries. In the West Bank, the IDF drops troops from helicopters into an open area nr. Jenin, searching the area for some time before withdrawing; patrols in 4 villages nr. Jericho, Ramallah, and Tulkarm; enters a village nr. Hebron to arrest 2 Palestinian children for hurting cattle on a nearby Jewish settlement; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Tubas, detaining Hamas-affiliated PC mbr. Khalid Abu Tous. A day after a PA court rejected an appeal challenging Fatah’s 6/12 decision to expel Dahlan from the party, PA security forces raid Dahlan’s Ramallah home, arresting 23 guards and assistants and confiscating 16 guns, a computer, and 2 cars; Dahlan is currently in Jordan. (AFP, MNA, WAFA, YA 7/28; WP 7/29; PCHR 8/4; OCHA 8/5; see also AFP 7/27)

The IDF intercepts 2 Palestinians in a rubber dinghy ferrying 10 assault rifles and ammunition across the Dead Sea from Jordan to the West Bank; Israel says it is treating the case as smuggling and not an attempted terrorist attack. The IDF also patrols in Nabi Salih in the evening, firing rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at stone-throwing Palestinians who confront them, causing no serious injuries. (JTA 7/25; NYT, WT 7/26; PCHR 7/28; OCHA 7/29)

At EU urging, the Quartet convenes a senior-level mtg. in Washington to discuss issuing a statement on how to jumpstart the peace process, but because of sharp disagreements over a draft prepared by the U.S. in consultation with Israel, the members fail to issue a statement. (AFP 7/11; AP 7/12; WJW 7/14; Foreign Policy [online] 7/22; WJW 8/5) 

Unidentified assailants attack Egypt’s natural gas pipeline to Israel and Jordan again (see 7/4). In the West Bank, the IDF demolishes a grocery store, sheep farm, and garage on land in al-Jib village nr. Jerusalem, strategically located between Givat Ze’ev and Givon settlements; declares a Palestinian olive grove in the Wadi Qana area nr. Salfit a closed military zone and uproots 600 trees; patrols in 3 villages nr. Ramallah, 2 nr. Salfit, and 1 nr. Jenin; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in and around Jenin town and r.c. and in Qalqilya. The World Zionist Organization’s settlement division (newly transferred to Netanyahu’s control; see 6/19) allocates 54,000 d. of agricultural land to 21 Jewish settlements in Jordan Valley, nearly doubling the total farmland under their control to 110,000 d.; it also increases water allocations to Jewish farmers in the Jordan Valley. (JP 6/28; WP 7/12; PCHR 7/14; OCHA 7/15)

The Knesset passes (47-38) into law a bill that would sanction individuals and organizations that call for a boycott of Israel or its settlements, denying them tax breaks and barring them from working for the government. The Knesset’s legal adviser warns, however, that the measure is “borderline illegal” since it strays into the right to free political expression. Human rights groups plan to challenge the law in the High Court within days. (HA, JTA, MNA 7/11; JTA, WJW 7/14; JPI, WP 7/22)

A Freedom Flotilla II boat tries to deport in Crete but is turned back by the Greek coast guard. A Knesset committee disqualifies (3-5) a bill submitted by Israeli Palestinian MK Ahmad Tibi (United Arab List) that would amend the 3/2011 “Nakba Law” (see Quarterly Update in JPS 160) to bar state funding to any organizations or authorities that deny the Nakba, arguing that it “rejects Israel as a Jewish and democratic state.” (JP 7/4; WP 7/5)

For the 3d time since unrest in Egypt began in 1/2011, unknown assailants blow up the natural gas pipeline from Egypt to Israel and Jordan, cutting supplies. Israeli naval vessels fire on Palestinian fishing boats off the n. Gaza coast, forcing them to return to shore. In the West Bank, the IDF stages separate synchronized morning patrols in 2 villages nr. Ramallah and 3 nr. Jenin; conducts arrest raids, house searches in Tulkarm in the afternoon; patrols in 3 villages nr. Salfit and 1 each nr. Jenin, Ramallah, and Tulkarm (firing tear gas at stone-throwing Palestinians who confront them nr. Jenin, causing no serious injuries). (JTA, WP 7/5; PCHR 7/7; OCHA 7/8)

On the anniversary of the Nakba, 1,000s of Palestinians fr. the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria stage marches (mostly nonviolent, though some stone throwing) toward the Israeli border. In Lebanon, though troops, riot police, and UNIFIL soldiers deploy to prevent marchers fr. reaching the border, a large group succeeds in reaching the border fence nr. Hizballah-controlled Maroun al-Ras village, where they throw stones at IDF troops. IDF troops open fire into Lebanon, leaving 10 Palestinians dead and at least 112 wounded. Palestinians refugees marching fr. Syria knock down the border fence into the Golan Heights, enter the Druze village of Majdal Shams, and rally in the village square, erecting Palestinian flags. IDF troops open fire to drive them back across the border, killing 4 Palestinians and wounding around 200. On the border with Jordan, Jordanian troops fired tear gas and scuffle with some 800 Palestinians, preventing them fr. reaching the border, leaving 14 demonstrators and 3 police officers lightly injured. In Egypt, govt. forces reinforce their border, preventing some 250 Palestinians fr. marching to the Rafah crossing. In Cairo, riot police fire tear gas, disperse protesters converging on the Israeli embassy, injuring around 120. On the Gaza border, IDF troops fire live ammunition and artillery at Gazans marching toward the border, wounding at least 125. In the West Bank, IDF troops fire tear gas, rubber-coated steel bullets to disperse around 1,000 stone-throwing Palestinians marching toward the Qalandia crossing (injuring 10s) and violently beat scores of Palestinians marching fr. Palestinian-controlled area A toward Israeli security-controlled area B in Hebron (injuring 10s). A large peaceful rally commemorating the Nakba is held in Ramallah. Numerous smaller and protests clashes are also reported in the West Bank and East Jerusalem; rights groups say some 185 Palestinians have been injured in these clashes over the past 3 days, 153 of them in Jerusalem. Netanyahu accuses the demonstrators of “incitement” and challenging “the very existence of Israel.” Other Israeli officials accuse Iran and Syria of instigating the Palestinians, noting that Syrian security did nothing to prevent Palestinians fr. approaching the border. (DS, IFM, IsRN, JAZ, JP, MA, YA 5/15; Christian Science Monitor, NYT, PCHR, WP, WT 5/16)

Unrelated to the “March to Palestine,” IDF troops fired across the border into Gaza, killing a Palestinian who allegedly was planting an explosive device. Inside Israel, an Israeli Palestinian drives his truck into several cars, a bus, and pedestrians in Tel Aviv, killing 1 Israeli and injuring 17 in what Israeli police say was a deliberate terrorist attack; the driver, who is arrested, strongly denies deliberately harming anyone, saying he lost control of his vehicle when a tire blew. The IDF also patrols in 2 village nr. Qalqilya (arresting 1 Palestinian teenager for throwing stones) and 2 nr. Tulkarm; sends undercover units into Nur al-Shams r.c. nr. Tulkarm late at night, surrounding and raiding a house and arresting 1 Palestinian; conducts other late-night arrest raids, house searches in and around al-‘Arub r.c. and Hebron, and nr. Salfit. Jewish settlers fr. Kiryat Arba settlement in Hebron throw 4 Molotov cocktails at a nearby Palestinian home, causing minor damage. Israel resumes transferring VAT taxes to the PA (see 5/1), having received PA assurances that none of the money would be accessible to Hamas under the new Fatah-Hamas unity deal, but warning that it would reconsider suspending transfers if Hamas was allowed to join a PA govt. (NYT 5/16; PCHR 5/19; OCHA 5/20)

At quarter’s end, fierce fighting is ongoing in Libya and NATO intervention continues. Rebel-held areas increasingly report shortages of food and medical supplies. No reliable figures on casualties are available since independent media access and communications are extremely difficult. Deaths are thought to be well into the 1,000s and perhaps as high as 10,000. (WP 5/16; REU 6/9)

Fatah and Hamas officials announce an (unsigned) reconciliation agreement, pledging to form a transitional national unity govt. made up of independent technocrats chosen by consensus that would prioritize planning for legislative and presidential elections within a year (including agreeing on new mbrs. for the Central Elections Commission), rebuilding Gaza, and reunifying West Bank and Gaza institutions. Netanyahu denounces the agreement, saying the PA “must choose between peace with Israel or peace with Hamas.” The PA replies that “Netanyahu must choose between a just peace with the united Palestinian people . . . and settlements.” (IFM, REU 4/27; NYT, WP, WT 4/28; NYT 4/29)

The IDF makes a brief incursion into s. Gaza to level lands and clear lines of sight e. of Dayr al-Balah. In Egypt’s Sinai, a new explosion damages the recently repaired natural gas pipeline to Israel and Jordan, cutting supplies once again. (NYT, PCHR 4/28; OCHA 5/6)

IDF troops make a brief incursion into c. Gaza e. of Gaza Valley village to level land and clear lines of sight. The PFLP claims its mbrs. directed cross-border fire at an IDF jeep on the Israeli side of the Gaza border fence e. of Gaza City; the IDF says it has no reports of an attack. In the West Bank, the IDF demolishes 6 residential shelters and 21 animal pens in Khirbat Tana nr. Nablus, displacing 52 Palestinians, including 30 children (see 12/6); fires rubber-coated steel bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades at stone-throwing Palestinian youths nr. Nablus; conducts arrest raids, house searches nr. Jericho in the afternoon and nr. Hebron and Tubas late at night. (IDFS, MNA, PCHR 2/10, 2/17; OCHA 2/18)

Jordan’s new government, led by PM Bakhit, is sworn in. The cabinet includes 1 former Muslim Brotherhood mbr., a leading female activist, and mbrs. of the leftist unionists. (WT 2/10)

The PA, under heavy criticism for the negotiation details revealed by the Palestine Papers, announces that it will hold Palestinian municipal, legislative, and presidential elections as quickly as possible, pledging to set dates within a wk. (NYT 2/2)

UNRWA reports that it has been forced to suspend another 26 Gaza construction projects because of Israeli limits on gravel imports (see 1/25). In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in a village nr. Ramallah in the morning; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Jenin town and r.c. and nr. Hebron. A Palestinian court in Nablus finds a Palestinian guilty of selling land to an Israeli, sentencing him to 10 yrs. in jail. (PCHR 2/3; OCHA 2/4; JPI 2/5)

Jordan’s King Abdullah dismisses PM Samir Rifa‘i and his cabinet in response to widespread protests by Jordanians inspired by demonstrations in Egypt and Tunisia. He taps Maruf al-Bakhit, a popular retired general and fmr. amb. to Israel, to form a new cabinet. (NYT, WP 2/2)

In Cairo, 100,000s of Egyptians join protesters in Tahrir Square for the March of Millions, as similar protests are held around the country. (Little violence is reported.) Protesters hold fast to demands that Mubarak resign, rejecting his offers over the past 2 days to reshuffle his cabinet, to open talks with El-Baradei, and not to seek reelection when his formal term ends in 9/2011. Meanwhile, the U.S. and EU have stepped up diplomatic efforts to pressure Mubarak to begin an “immediate transitional process leading to democratic elections,” without explicitly calling on Mubarak to step down. Mubarak, outraged, today hardens his positions and escalates violence to break up the protests, while the international community steps up diplomatic efforts (especially U.S. talks with Egyptian military figures) to put him in check. (NYT, White House press release, WP, WT 2/1; JP, NYT, WP, WT 2/2; Human Rights Watch press release, NYT, WP, WT 2/3; NYT, WP, WT 2/4; NYT, WP 2/7; see also YA 1/31)

In light of domestic security concerns, Egypt seals its border with Gaza, causing almost all trade through the smuggling tunnels along the Rafah border to cease, sparking hoarding by Gazans. Hamas authorities assure the public that it has enough fuel and food stockpiled to last several days, warning merchants against hiking prices. OCHA however—noting that Israel continues to cut off all industrial fuel imports to Gaza for a 3d week making Gaza all the more reliant on smuggled fuel—expresses concern that fuel shortages will quickly become a problem, affecting the ability of municipal authorities to provide electricity, water, and sewage treatment. Meanwhile, Hamas officials in Gaza report that at least 8 Hamas mbrs. jailed in Egypt are among those freed during prisons breaks and rioting across Egypt in recent days; at least 2 have already returned to Gaza through smuggling tunnels on the Rafah border. In the West Bank, the IDF patrols in a village nr. Tulkarm during the day; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Hebron and nr. Jenin and Qalqilya (warning the mayor of Jayyus that his house would be turned into an IDF post if stone-throwing at troops fr. the village continued). (AFP, MNA 1/30; PCHR 2/3; OCHA 2/4)

With major protests (10,000s) in Egypt continuing unabated and a “march of millions” called for 2/1, the Obama admin. calls on Mubarak to facilitate an “orderly transition” to a more representative government but does not explicitly call on him to resign, with Secy. Clinton stressing “we are not advocating any specific outcome,” but “it needs to be done immediately.” France and Germany issue similar statements. Joint Chiefs of Staff head Adm. Mike Mullen phones Egyptian military chief of staff Gen. Sami Anan to express “his appreciation for the continued professionalism of the Egyptian military” in refusing to engage protesters. Amid signs that Mubarak’s regime might really topple, Egypt’s organized opposition parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, huddle for most of the day to discuss whether they could project a united front to provide direction and leadership to the popular protests, choosing opposition figure and fmr. IAEA head Muhammad El-Baradei (as a nonthreatening figure to the West) to represent the opposition in negotiations with the government over a transition and naming 10 persons they would delegate to an interim unity government. But when El-Baradei speaks in Tahrir Square in the evening, demonstrators reject him, saying the opposition parties do not represent them. Fearing that outside forces could begin smuggling weapons into the country to back an overthrow, Egypt seals the Gaza border indefinitely and, with Israel’s permission, moves 2 battalions (800 soldiers) into the Sinai for the 1st time since the 1979 peace treaty was reached, requiring the area to be a demilitarized zone. Israeli officials hold nearly around-the-clock strategy meetings to discuss the implications for Israel if Mubarak’s government falls, fearing that Mubarak’s overthrow could strengthen Hamas in Gaza and destabilize Jordan, but seeing Mubarak’s appointment of Suleiman, who has overseen Israeli-Hamas prisoner release talks, as a hopeful sign. Netanyahu orders officials to stay publicly silent as events play out. (MNA, NYT, WP 1/30; NYT, WP, WT 1/31)