The Palestine Chronology

An incendiary balloon allegedly flown from Gaza sparks a fire in Israel’s Alumin Kibbutz near Beersheba, damaging 1 vehicle. Off Gaza’s coast, Israeli naval forces open fire on Palestinian fishing boats near Bayt Lahiya, causing no damage or injuries. In the West Bank, Israeli forces uproot a number of olive trees from Palestinian land near Tulkarm. IDF troops patrol near Jenin, Tulkarm, Qalqilya, and Hebron. Israeli settlers dump sewage on the grounds of a Palestinian school in ‘Azun ‘Atma village near Qalqilya. In East Jerusalem, Israeli forces arrest 3 Palestinians during raids in Hizma, Silwan, and the Old City. They also arrest the PA’s governor of Jerusalem, Adnan Ghaith, during a raid in Silwan. The allegations against him are reportedly varied, revolving around land sales in East Jerusalem and PA operations in the city. Ghaith was arrested in connection with similarly murky allegations on 10/21. (MNA, MNA, WAFA, WAFA 11/1; MNA 11/2; PCHR 11/8)

After meeting with Egyptian intelligence officials in Gaza, the various political factions in Gaza agree to stop launching incendiary kites and balloons into Israel and to stop protesters from setting fire to tires, according to a senior Hamas official. “Friday’s events will be quiet,” adds a member of the Great March of Return organizing committee. The protests on 11/2 are set to proceed no less than 500 meters away from the border fence. Today’s agreement comes amid ongoing Egypt-mediated talks on a possible long-term cease-fire between Hamas and Israel. It also comes one day after Israeli defense minister Lieberman ordered an expansion of the fishing zone off Gaza’s coast. (HA, JP, TOI, YA 11/1)

In the West Bank, Israeli forces confiscate a number of mobile homes that were to serve as classrooms in Jubbet al-Dhib, a Palestinian Bedouin village near Jerusalem. Sources in the village say they have to delay the start of the school year from 8/23 to 8/27 as a result. IDF troops patrol near Qalqilya and Hebron during the day. In East Jerusalem, Israeli forces demolish a makeshift home in Silwan, having demolished it on 8/15. (The Palestinian owner rebuilt it.) They also prevent the delivery of Palestinian textbooks to schools at Haram al-Sharif, assault a number of Palestinians, and arrest 6 Palestinians during raids in Silwan. Off Gaza’s coast, Israeli naval forces open fire on Palestinian fishing boats near Bayt Lahiya for the 3d and 4th time in 24 hours, causing no damage or injuries. In the Negev, Israeli forces demolish a home in the Palestinian Bedouin village Wadi al-Na‘am near Beersheba. (MNA, WAFA 8/22; HA 8/23; PCHR 8/24)

Two U.S. sources say that the Trump administration has decided to withhold approximately $290 million in aid to Egypt because of the government’s failure to make adequate progress on democratic reforms ($95.7 million will be cut entirely and $195 million will be delayed). (REU, TOI, YA 8/22; CNN 8/23)

The atmosphere at Haram al-Sharif remains tense; Muslim worshippers continue praying and protesting outside the sanctuary throughout the day. Israeli forces violently disperse them after the 5th prayer of the day, injuring at least 37 (3 seriously). Separately, IDF troops shoot and kill a Palestinian in Tuqu‘ village nr. Bethlehem after he allegedly attempts to stab 1 of them at a checkpoint; no Israeli soldiers are injured. The killing sparks minor clashes in the village (there are no serious injuries). The IDF returns late at night to interrogate the alleged killer’s family, and threatens punitive demolition of their home. IDF troops also arrest 1 Palestinian during a raid nr. Salfit and patrol during the day nr. Hebron and Qalqilya. Israeli forces issue stop-work orders to 3 homes under construction in Dura village nr. Hebron. In Israel, Israeli forces demolish a home in the Bedouin village Wadi al-Na‘am nr. Beersheba. (HA, MNA, TOI, WAFA 7/20; MNA 7/21; PCHR 7/27)

In Gaza City, more than 2,000 Palestinians rally in support of exiled Fatah leader Dahlan, lending further credence to rumors that Egypt has facilitated an agreement between Dahlan and Hamas. (AP 7/20)

In Gaza, a Palestinian man from Jabaliya succumbs to injuries sustained on 7/28/2014 during OPE. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts a late-night raid nr. Hebron, issuing an arrest summons to 1 Palestinian and sparking minor clashes with stone-throwing Palestinian youths; patrols in 2 villages each nr. Ramallah and Hebron, as well as ‘Ayn al-Sultan r.c. and 1 village nr. Jericho, and also violently disperses dozens of Palestinians protesting outside Jalazun r.c. nr. Ramallah, causing no serious injuries. In East Jerusalem, Israeli forces conduct raids and house searches in Silwan and Bayt Hanina, arresting 7 Palestinians. In s. Israel nr. Beersheba, Israeli forces demolish a bedouin-owned home. (MNA 5/28; MNA 5/29; PCHR 6/4)

French FM Laurent Fabius says that he will travel to Israel and the oPt in 6/2015 to try to persuade the Israelis, Palestinians, and the Arab states to accept a French-drafted UNSC res. setting parameters for a new round of peace negotiations between the parties. (HA, REU, TOI 5/28)

In Egypt, the Sinai Province of the Islamic State (SPIS) says on its Facebook page that it plans to attack Eilat, Israel, “in the coming days.” (SPIS will launch a rocket into Israel on 7/3.) According to Egyptian media reports, SPIS also threatens to “begin operations against Hamas positions” in Gaza. The threat comes amid escalating tension between Hamas and Islamist groups in Gaza. (JP, TOI 5/28)

On the 5th day of OPE, the IDF strikes multiple targets across the Gaza Strip, killing approximately 48 Palestinians, including 21 in a single strike on the home of a senior police commander in Gaza City. Air strikes also hit a center for the disabled, killing 2. The IDF warns Palestinians in the n. Gaza Strip to “leave their homes for their own safety,” adding that “it’s unsafe to be nr. Hamas.” Israel’s targets expand to include civilian institutions with suspected Hamas ties. Israeli naval forces raid the beach at al-Sudaniyya in the n. Gaza Strip, and clash with al-Qassam Brigades fighters. Palestinians fire some 70 rockets into Israel, and at least 6 are intercepted by Iron Dome batteries. In the evening, al-Qassam Brigades launches 10 rockets toward Tel Aviv, but they cause no damage or casualties. Overall, 2 Israelis are injured nr. Beersheba in the day’s barrage. In addition to s. and c. areas, rockets also land nr. Efrat settlement in the West Bank, causing no damage. In East Jerusalem, Israeli security forces clash with Palestinian youth in Issawiyya, al-Tur, and Qalandia. (AP, HA, JP, MNA, REU 7/12; PCHR 7/13)

Addressing the crisis in Gaza, the UNSC issues a presidential statement calling for a “de-escalation of the situation, restoration of calm, and reinstitution of the 11/2012 ceasefire.” It also expresses “serious concern regarding the crisis related to Gaza and the protection and welfare of civilians on both sides” and calls for “respect for international humanitarian law.” Media reports suggest that a cease-fire proposal is being drawn up at the initiative of the Palestinians with the involvement of Egypt and Qatar, but Islamic Jihad dep. head Ziad al-Nakhleh dismisses this as a rumor. (AP, HA, JP, MNA, REU 7/12)

Unknown persons fire 3 rockets from inside Lebanon that land into n. Israel, causing no damage or injuries. The IDF responds with artillery fire toward “the source of fire.” (AP, REU 7/12)

The IDF launches dozens of air strikes across the Gaza Strip, killing 28 Palestinians and wounding approximately 550. There are fatal strikes in Gaza City, Rafah, Dayr al-Balah, Jabaliya, Khan Yunis, and Bayt Lahiya, among others. Palestinians fire dozens of projectiles into Israel, with 1 rocket hitting a house in Ashdod, causing damage. Other targeted towns include Beersheba, Ashqelon, and Sdot Negev in the s., and Rehovot, Yavne, Lod, Ramle, and Gadera in the c. Iron Dome batteries intercept 2 rockets fired at the Jerusalem area and 2 others fall in open areas. A mortar shell injures 2 Israeli soldiers close to the border. (AFP, AP, HA, JP, MNA, REU 7/10; PCHR 7/11)

Israeli PM Netanyahu says that attacks will continue to “expand and continue until the fire on our communities is over and the quiet returns.” The PM also tells mbrs. of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Comms. that a cease-fire with Hamas is not on the agenda. Islamic Jihad spokesperson Abu Ahmad says the “factions in Gaza are not going to surrender.” At an emergency meeting of the UNSC in New York, UN Secy.-Gen. Ban says that “it is now more urgent than ever to try to find common ground for a return to calm and a cease-fire understanding,” and that he has been in contact with Israel, the PA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, the Arab League, the U.S., and the EU. Palestinian UN amb. Riyad Mansour tells the meeting that the international community is obliged to ensure protection of Palestinian civilians, and accuses Israel of violating its responsibility as an occupying power. Israeli UN amb. Ron Prosor says Hamas is “committing a double war crime: targeting Israeli civilians while hiding behind Palestinian civilians.” Pres. Obama telephones PM Netanyahu and tells him that the U.S. is willing to help negotiate a cease-fire. State Dept. spokesperson Psaki says that Kerry has been “reaching out to countries in the region” including Qatar and Egypt, which “can play a role in bringing an end to the rocket fire from Hamas.” (AFP, AP, HA, JP, MNA, REU 7/10)

Cross-border violence in Gaza enters its 3d day. Israel conducts 3 drone air strikes and 7 artillery strikes on Gaza, injuring 6 Palestinians (3 militants and 3 bystanders, including a woman and child). The PRCs, Islamic Jihad, and Hamas fire as many as 64 rockets (including at least 7 Grads) and 18 mortars, killing 1 Israeli and wounding 6 in Beersheba, lightly injuring 3 Israelis in Ofakim when a rocket hits a house, and injuring 3 Palestinian laborers in Ashdod (2 seriously). Israeli naval vessels fire 3 times on Palestinian fishing boats off the Gaza coast, forcing them to return to shore. IDF soldiers on the n. Gaza border nr. Bayt Hanun fire warning shots at Palestinian fishermen on the beach nr. the no-go zone, causing no injuries. In the West Bank, the IDF carries out a major late-night raid on Hebron, sending 100 military vehicles into the area fr. 3 directions and rounding up some 120 Palestinians, mostly Hamas members and supporters, marking the largest West Bank arrest operation since 2003; those arrested include Hamas-affiliated Palestinian Council (PC) mbr. Muhammad Abu Jheisha and leading figures of several Hamas-affiliated charities. Jewish settlers fr. Migron outpost nr. Ramallah beat a 12-yr.-old Palestinian boy tending sheep nearby. (JP, YA 8/20; JAZ, JP, NYT, WP 8/21; MNA 8/22; IFM, PCHR 8/25; OCHA 8/26)

In Cairo, crowds outside the Israeli emb. grow steadily into the 1,000s overnight and throughout the day. Israel issues a formal expression of regret for the deaths of the Egyptian soldiers, but Egyptian leaders say it is inadequate. Egypt briefly threatens to recall its amb. fr. Israel, but backs down following international intervention to calm tensions. Israel shelves discussions of a major military strike on Gaza given the crisis with Egypt. (WP 8/20; NYT, WP 8/21; NYT 8/27; WP 8/28)

Unidentified assailants attack and damage Egypt’s national gas pipeline to Israel for the 3d time in a month and the 5th time since unrest in Egypt erupted in 2/2011 (see 7/11). IDF troops on the n. Gaza border fire warning shots at Palestinian farmers working nr. the border fence, grazing 1. In the West Bank, the IDF conducts synchronized morning patrols in 4 villages nr. Jenin; patrols in 3 villages nr. Tulkarm, 2 nr. Salfit, and 1 each nr. Jericho and Ramallah; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches nr. Hebron. In East Jerusalem, the IDF enters Silwan at midday, raiding a home and arresting a Palestinian. (JTA 7/31; PCHR 8/4; OCHA 8/5)

As many as 150,000 Israelis in Tel Aviv, Haifa, Jerusalem, Beersheba, and 6 other cities protest the high cost of living, demanding economic reforms, “social justice,” and “a welfare state now.” In previous days, the Histadrut, Israel’s labor federation, said it strongly supports the demonstrations. (WP 7/31; NYT, WP, WT 8/1)

Egypt announces that Gaza- and Damascus-based Hamas officials have agreed on a cease-fire offer to be present to Israel (see Quarterly Update). Israel agrees to send an envoy to Cairo on 1/15 to be briefed on the plan. Meanwhile, Israel’s intense air, naval, and ground assaults on Gaza continue.

Combat notes: Under cover of air strikes and heavy shelling, IDF troops take up new positions in s. Gaza’s al-Fukhari area nr. the Sufa crossing (occupying several homes and expelling the residents) and al-Shuka village; Israeli fire is so intense that rescuers cannot reach the wounded or retrieve the dead. The IDF reports carrying out approximately 120 air strikes today (70 of them after nightfall) that kill 10s of Palestinians. Targets include at least 24 groups of armed Palestinians, 16 smuggling tunnels, at least 10 suspected weapons depots (including a Rafah mosque), and 24 rocket launching sites (killing senior IQB cmdrs. Walid Za‘abud and Muhammad Dash nr. al-Zaytun). Air strike target areas include Bani Suhayla, Bayt Lahiya, Gaza City (areas northwest of the city and al-Nasser, al-Sabra, al-Sha‘af, Shaykh Ridwan, al-Shuja‘iyya, Tal al-Hawa, al-Yarmuk, al-Zaytun), Khan Yunis, Khuza, al-Mughraqa, Nussayrat r.c., al-Qarara, Rafah, al-Shabura r.c., Twam, Yibna r.c. Heavy artillery and tank fire are reported in and around Bayt Lahiya (white phosphorous suspected), al-Bureij r.c., Gaza City (al-Sabra, al-Tuffah), Jabaliya town and r.c. Naval bombardment centers on Rafah’s Tal al-Sultan neighborhood.

Palestinians fire 14 rockets and 2 mortars, including 4 Grads (2 each in Ashdod and Beersheba), into Israel, causing no injuries. Gaza medical workers put the estimated Palestinian toll at 1,018 dead (including an estimated 300 children), 4,700 injured. The IDF reports 27 soldiers wounded (1 severely, 2 moderately, 24 lightly), mostly in ground fighting with Palestinians n. Gaza, including 7 soldiers wounded (1 severely, 1 moderately, 5 lightly) by a Palestinian antitank missile. The Israeli toll stands at 13–14 dead, more than 150 wounded.

Humanitarian notes: The IDF allows at least 108 truckloads of humanitarian aid into Gaza during the lull. A group of Israeli human rights groups (including Amnesty International–Israel, B’Tselem Gisha, Physicians for Human Rights–Israel) characterize Israel’s restrictions on aid and access to Gaza by relief groups and medial workers as a “blatant violation of the laws of warfare and raises the suspicion, which we ask be investigated, of the commission of war crimes.” (AP, BBC, CBS News, HA, IDF, IFM, JAZ, MM, QA, REU, RFM, XIN 1/14; AYM, HA, IDF, IFM, IHY, JAZ, MA, MM, NYT, PCHR, WP, WT, YA 1/15; ITIC 1/19; PCHR 1/22, 1/29)

The IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in and around Hebron and Jenin, in Bayt Sahur, and nr. Nablus. (PCHR 1/22)

Unidentified assailants fire 3 rockets fr. s. Lebanon into n. Israel. (Up to a dozen rockets total may have been fired, with others landing inside Lebanon). The IDF returns fire. No damage or injuries are reported. (MM, MNR 1/14; WP 1/15)

The IDF launches its deepest ground incursions into Gaza City since OCL began, conducting a 2-front assault from the north and the south; troops pull back to the outskirts of Gaza City by nightfall. To accommodate expanded operations, the IDF commits its first significant influx of reservists into Gaza, numbering in the 1,000s, using them to hold IDF positions, freeing up regular combat troops to thrust deeper into Gaza City.

Combat notes: The intensified IDF assault on Gaza City begins before dawn, with tanks and troops based in the fmr. Netzarim settlement advancing fr. the southwest, supported by helicopter gunships and F16s, resulting in some of the heaviest fighting since OCL began, especially in Shaykh Ajlin. Simultaneously, the IDF steps up attacks on the northern outskirts of the city. The IDF reports (IDF 1/11) finding 10s of booby-trapped houses, buildings, and tunnels, accusing Hamas of booby-trapping 30 homes in one neighborhood (location not given). Ground forces also move into Khuza in s. Gaza under heavy artillery fire, bulldozing several homes and razing tracts of agricultural land before withdrawing late in the evening.

The IDF reports hitting nearly 70 targets across Gaza today and making more than 40 air strikes. Targets hit include 23 smuggling tunnels (including 2 located under the homes of Hamas mbrs.), at least 15 “armed cells,” 11 suspected weapons depots, several rocket-launching sites. Air strike target areas include Bani Suhayla, Bayt Hanun, Bayt Lahiya, Gaza City (Shaykh Ridwan), Khan Yunis, al-Maghazi, al-Mughraqa, Nussayrat, Rafah, al-Shabura r.c., Yibna r.c., al-Zawayda (c. Gaza). Heavy tank and artillery fire is reported in Bayt Hanun (white phosphorus use confirmed by Amnesty International), Gaza City (al-Shuja‘iyya, Tal al-Hawa, al-Zaytun), Jabaliya, Khuza, Khan Yunis (possibly involving white phosphorous).

Palestinians fire 20 rockets and 8 mortars into Israel, including at least 1 Grad that hits an empty kindergarten in Ashdod (damage but no injuries) and 2 rockets that hit Beersheba (some light injuries). The IDF reports sustaining no casualties but killing around 45 armed Palestinians, bringing the estimated Palestinian toll to at least 876 dead, 3,600 wounded.

Humanitarian notes: The IDF observes the daily 3-hr. humanitarian lull but does not release figures on the number of trucks permitted entry.

Of note: Today’s IDF air strikes on tunnels along the Rafah border damage 10 homes in Egyptian Rafah, seriously wound 2 Egyptian border policemen and lightly wound 1 border policeman, 2 Egyptian children (ages 2 and 5). Egyptian security officials say that the Israeli drones and planes have violated Egyptian air space daily since OCL began and that previous Israeli air strikes during OCL have damaged buildings and 1 mosque, shattered windows, and caused power shortages inside Egypt. (AFP, HA, IDF, WP 1/11; IDF, MM, NYT, WP, WT 1/12; WT 1/13; PCHR 1/15; ITIC 1/19; MM, QA 1/22)

The IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Bayt Umar and Sa’ir, both nr. Hebron. (PCHR 1/15)

The UNSC passes (14–0, with the U.S. abstaining) res. 1860, calling for an “immediate, durable, and fully respected cease-fire, leading to the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza” but not outlining an implementation or enforcement mechanism (see Doc. A8). Israel says it will not halt its operations until a Hamas cease-fire can be guaranteed. Meanwhile, Egypt begins intensive bilateral talks with Israeli and Hamas envoys to mediate a cease-fire.

Combat notes: The IDF carries out another 60 air strikes across Gaza, with heavy bombing of the Rafah border. Targets include more than 18 homes of senior IQB members (all believed to be in hiding), “a number of armed operatives” assassinated (not named), several groups of armed men, 15 tunnels (including some homes believed to be covering entrances to tunnels), 11 suspected weapons depots (including 1 mosque in n. Gaza), 15 rocket-launching sites, the PASF headquarters and PA Youth and Sports Min. offices in Rafah, and an Islamic Jihad office in Abasan. Target areas include Abasan, Bani Suhayla, Bayt Hanun, Bayt Lahiya, al-Bureij r.c., Dayr al-Balah, Gaza City (city center, al-Nasser), Jabaliya town and r.c., Khan Yunis, al-Nasser (n. of Rafah), Nussayrat, Rafah. Heavy naval shelling of Dayr al-Balah and the nearby al-Qur’an area of c. Gaza is also reported. As ground operations continue, the IDF begins moving a small number of reservists into the Strip for the 1st time since OCL began. Heavy artillery and ground fire is reported in Abasan, Gaza City (al-Sha‘af, al-Shuja‘iyya, Tal al-Hawa, alZaytun), al-Qarara. Late in the evening, IDF troops withdraw from al-Qarara; residents report at least 20 homes destroyed since the IDF took up positions in the city on 1/6.

Palestinians fire at least 15 rockets and 1 mortar into Israel, lightly injuring 4 Israelis. Areas hit by rockets include Ashdod, Ashqelon, Beersheba (4 Grads), Ofakim.

The Palestinian toll, including bodies recovered during the humanitarian lull today (see below), reaches at least 758 dead and more than 3,100 injured. In addition, a Ukrainian woman (married to a Gazan) and her toddler are killed by an IDF shell in Gaza City, becoming the 1st foreign casualties inside Gaza (1 Egyptian was killed on the Rafah border on 12/28). Today, 3 IDF soldiers are killed and 14 are wounded (1 seriously, 1 moderately, 12 lightly) during clashes inside Gaza, bringing the Israeli toll to 13–14 dead and more than 100 injured.

Humanitarian notes: IDF soldiers fire on relief workers in 3 incidents in which the UN and ICRC had fully coordinated their movements with the IDF in advance (providing the IDF with the license plates of the vehicles, giving precise times and routes of travel, and using clearly marked vehicles) and received IDF assurances that travel would be safe. One UN driver is killed and 2 other UN employees and 1 ICRC employee are wounded. The UN and other groups scale back or suspend aid deliveries to Gaza, citing security concerns.

During the humanitarian lull, the IDF allows ICRC workers back into a heavily damaged residential block of al-Zaytun (see 1/7), where they rescue 103 injured Palestinians who have been stranded since 1/5 and report finding 40–50 bodies, fearing that more dead and injured may be trapped under demolished homes. The Israeli human rights group B’Tselem reports (WP 1/9) new evidence that IDF soldiers stationed outside the destroyed houses were aware people were trapped but denied aid. UN Undersecy. Gen. for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes urges Israel to investigate, calling (WP 1/9) it “a particularly outrageous incident” and “absolutely horrifying.”

Israel allows 223 Palestinian dual nationals to exit Gaza via the Erez crossing for Jordan (see 1/2).

The UN estimates that 20,000 Gazans have been internally displaced by the fighting. (AP, HA, IDF, IHY, JP, MA, NYT, UNIS, YA 1/8; AFP, Daily Star, IDF, IFM, ITARTASS, MET, NYT, RFM, UNIS, WP, WT 1/9; AFP, AP, NYT, WT 1/12; AYM, JP, NYT, WT 1/13; IHY, MM 1/14; PCHR 1/15; WJW 1/16; NYT 1/17; ITIC 1/18; JPI 1/23)

In the West Bank, the IDF fatally shoots a Palestinian who allegedly attempts to set fire to a gas station outside the Ma’ale Adumim settlement e. of Jerusalem; fires live ammunition and rubber-coated steel bullets at Palestinians demonstrating against OCL in al-Fawar r.c. nr. Hebron, seriously wounding 2 (including a 12-yr.-old boy); fires live ammunition at Palestinians protesting against the separation wall in Bil‘in, wounding 1; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in and around Nablus, in Qabatya nr. Jenin. (PCHR 1/15)

The PFLP General Command fires 4 rockets fr. s. Lebanon into Israel, 3 of which explode near Nahariya, lightly wounding 4 Israelis (5 others are treated for shock). The IDF fires 5 shells the border as a “measured response” and intensifies surveillance overflights of s. Lebanon. Hizballah, the Lebanese government, and Fatah and Hamas reps. in Lebanon condemn the fire, assuring Israel they have no intention of opening a 2d front. The Lebanese army and UNIFIL pledge to step up surveillance in s. Lebanon (ITV, MM, MNR, RFM 1/8; Guardian, HA, MM, NYT, WP, WT, SFR, al-Watan, YA 1/9; YA 1/10; AFP, AP, NYT, WT 1/12; HA, MM 1/15; JPI 1/23)

The Israeli cabinet rejects the 12/30 French proposal for a 48-hr. humanitarian truce, complaining that it lacked a mechanism to guarantee enforcement. Damascusbased Hamas leader Khalid Mishal says Hamas will consider any cease-fire proposal that includes a lifting of Israel’s embargo, but in Gaza, Haniyeh states that Hamas would not consider any proposals until Israel halts its attacks and opens Gaza’s border crossings, including Rafah.

In a briefing to Olmert’s security cabinet, Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin states that Hamas’s weapons development facilities have been “completely wiped out” and “Hamas’s ability to govern Gaza has been significantly impaired.” Senior Israeli military sources speaking anonymously state that no major hardened targets remain standing but that Hamas’s military wing, the Izzeddin al-Qassam Brigades (IQB), “has to a large extent survived the initial onslaught.”

The IDF continues to mass troops and tanks on the Gaza border, stating explicitly for the 1st time that a ground invasion is likely once wet weather clears. The security cabinet increases the number of reservists activated to more than 9,000.

Israeli actions: The IDF carries out some 60 air strikes, and the Israeli navy shells Gaza from the sea. Among the 66 sites hit by the IDF are Haniyeh’s office, the Tal al-Hawa Mosque in Gaza City (Israel claims it was used as a weapons depot), a major Islamic Jihad weapons depot in Khan Yunis (killing senior Islamic Jihad military cmdr. Amar Abu Ghalula, 3 other Islamic Jihad mbrs.), more tunnels on the Rafah border, at least 8 homes, 1 medical clinic, Hamas posts (including money exchanges). Target areas include Abasan, Bayt Hanun, Gaza City, Jabaliya r.c., Khan Yunis, Nussayrat r.c., Rafah. The estimated Palestinian toll reaches 393 dead, more than 1,900 wounded.

The IDF claims to have destroyed 200 smuggling tunnels since 12/27; a Palestinian source in Rafah says the Israelis seem to know which tunnels are commercial and which are used by Hamas, and have been selectively targeting Hamas tunnels.

Palestinian actions: Palestinians fire 49 rockets, 15 mortars into Israel, causing no serious injuries; 4 longer-range rockets land in Beersheba, 25 mi. n. of the Gaza border, 1 of which hits an empty school, causing significant damage to 1 room.

Humanitarian notes: Israel allows 93 truckloads of food, medicine into Gaza. UNRWA issues a $34-m. emergency appeal for additional food, medical, and reconstruction aid for Gaza in the wake of OCL; the appeal is in addition to a $275-m. emergency appeal for the West Bank and Gaza for 2009 issued earlier in the month. UNRWA Commissioner-Gen. Karen AbuZayd, warning of the dire conditions in Gaza (where she currently is based), states that for the first time in her 8 yrs. with UNRWA she has begun to see Palestinians begging on the streets of Gaza.

Of note: Residents in Egyptian Rafah report a heavy military, border police, and plain-clothed intelligence presence on the Egyptian side of the border, which Egypt has declared a closed military zone, preventing demonstrations, keeping journalists away, and preventing breeches of the Rafah border from either direction. (AFP, AP, BBC, Canadian Broadcasting Center, FT, IDF, IFM, JP, REU, UNIS, UNOSAT, XIN 12/31; IDF, JP, NYT, PCHR, WP, WT 1/1; WT 1/2; IDF, Sabah 1/3; WP 1/4; IFM, PCHR 1/8; NYT 1/11)

In the West Bank, observers report that Palestinian sympathy for Hamas is growing, even though overall public reaction to OCL has been muted, largely because PA security forces have been breaking up explicitly pro-Hamas demonstrations. The IDF conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in and around Hebron, nr. Nablus. (PCHR, WP 1/1)

International diplomacy to end OCL clicks into gear with France proposing that Israel and Hamas impose a 48-hr. humanitarian truce to try to defuse the violence and restore the Gaza cease-fire, with humanitarian groups, Egypt, the EU, the Quartet, and the U.S. opening mediation channels (see Quarterly Update). Israel’s security cabinet meets to discuss the French proposal but does not formally respond.

Israeli actions: The IDF conducts 70 air strikes on Gaza, while the Israeli navy continues shelling from the sea, killing at least 10 Palestinians and wounding 40, bringing the death toll to about 370. The IDF reports hitting 110 individual sites, with primary targets being tunnels on the Rafah border, suspected weapons factories and rocket-launching sites, civil and naval police stations, and groups of resistance mbrs. In Gaza City, at least 20 air strikes hit Haniyeh’s offices, PA Interior Min., and main PA government complex in Gaza City, all of which had been targeted previously; 1 air strike hits an ambulance, killing 1 paramedic, seriously wounding a doctor and the driver. Part of Gaza’s main power grid is also hit, cutting all power to Gaza City. A fuel depot in Rafah is destroyed. In al-Bureij r.c., a mosque and health clinic are hit. In Khan Yunis, a money exchange is destroyed. At least 7 homes across the Strip are targeted. Target locations include Abasan, Bayt Hanun, Bayt Lahiya, al-Bureij r.c., Dayr al-Balah, Gaza City, Jabaliya town and r.c., Khan Yunis, al-Maghazi (c. Gaza), al-Mughraqa, al-Qarara, Rafah. The IDF launches a YouTube channel to broadcast declassified videos of its operations in Gaza, “other footage of interest to the international community” (JPI 1/8) and begins regular briefings for Internet bloggers worldwide.

Palestinian actions: Palestinians fire 41 rockets, 10 mortars into Israel, damaging 1 home in Sederot and causing several light injuries (excluding shock); 1 rocket lands in Beersheba, 25 mi. fr. the Gaza border, marking the farthest strike to date; 2 other long-range rockets land in Ashdod. Humanitarian notes: Israel allows 93 trucks into Gaza (50 carrying medical supplies and food donated by aid groups; 43 carrying commercial goods), but Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital says it is out of 150 kinds of medicine and 230 other medical supplies, including gloves, scissors, sterilization equipment, nitrogen for anesthesia. Fuel shipments are still cut off; Gaza’s power plant shuts down for lack of fuel. (BBC, HA, Independent 12/30; IDF, IFM, NYT, REU, UNOSAT, WP, WT 12/31; JP, PCHR 1/1; ITV 1/2; IDF 1/3; WP 1/4; IFM 1/8; NYT 1/13)

In the West Bank, a Palestinian worker in Mod’in Ilit settlement, angry over Israel’s war on Gaza, stabs, wounds 4 Jewish settlers before being shot and wounded by a paramedic who arrives on the scene. The IDF fires live ammunition, rubber-coated steel bullets, percussion grenades, tear gas at Palestinians demonstrating against OCL in al-Fawar r.c. nr. Hebron, wounding 3 (including teenagers ages 13, 14); makes simultaneous afternoon incursions into Beita and Hawara villages nr. Nablus, imposing curfews through 12/31; conducts simultaneous late-night raids, house searches on 4 villages nr. Jenin, firing on residential areas in all cases, causing no injuries and arresting only 1 teenager; conducts late-night arrest raids, house searches in Abu Dis and Jalazun r.c. nr. Ramallah, and nr. Bethlehem, Hebron, Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm. (PCHR, WJW 1/1)