After U.S. president Trump announced (5/8) that he was pulling the U.S. out of the 7/14/2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, attention shifted to its three European signatories—the UK, France, and Germany. The remaining two signatories—Russia and China—were expected to maintain their postagreement trade ties with Iran, but the Europeans were in a more difficult position. It was unclear if the U.S. planned to impose secondary sanctions on European companies doing business with Iran, thereby rendering continued European adherence to the agreement costly, or if the Europeans were willing to accept sanctions in exchange for continued Iranian adherence. The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, put it differently after meeting with EU energy commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete in Tehran on 5/19: “The ball is in the court of the EU.”
Several European companies, however, were not willing to wait for the politicians to sort matters out, and a number of them, including France’s Total and the Dutch shipping firm Maersk, stated that they would likely pull out of Iran if the U.S. imposed sanctions. Access to the Iranian market, where inflation and unemployment were growing, was not worth risking in light of the much larger and more lucrative U.S. market, analysts explained. “For sure there are clear difficulties with sanctions,” Cañete said after meeting with Salehi on 5/19. “We will have to ask [the U.S.] for waivers, for carve-outs for the companies that make investments [in Iran].” The Iranian government was still in favor of maintaining the agreement, but according to FM Mohammad Javad Zarif (5/20), “European political support for the [agreement] is not sufficient.”
As the Trump administration was preparing to reimpose sanctions on Iran, the remaining signatories of the 7/14/2015 JCPOA convened at Iran’s request in Vienna on 5/25. “We are negotiating . . . to see if they can provide us with a package which can give Iran the benefits of sanctions lifting,” said Iran’s Deputy FM Abbas Araghchi (5/25). “The next step is to find guarantees for that package.” After that first round of talks, France, Germany, the UK, and the EU sent (6/6) a formal request to the U.S. requesting that European companies be exempted from any new sanctions. “As allies, we expect that the U.S. will refrain from taking action to harm Europe’s security interests,” the request read.
The Trump administration had other plans, however. According to a 6/18 report in Haaretz, the U.S. and Israel had formed a joint task force to help oversee and enforce sanctions on Iran. On 6/26, a senior U.S. State Department official said that the Trump administration expected global imports of Iranian oil to cease when the U.S. reimposed sanctions on Iran’s energy sector, set to go into effect on 11/4/2018. Although most of the rhetoric from the Trump administration was consistent with that position, another senior State Department official speculated (7/2) that some exceptions might be made. “We are prepared to work with countries that are reducing their imports on a case-by-case basis,” the official said (7/2), reportedly in an effort to ease fluctuations in the international oil market. “Our policy is to get to zero [imports of Iranian oil] as soon as possible.”
Following several days of talks in Vienna, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani deemed (7/5) the latest European offer of economic incentives insufficient. The world’s third-largest shipping company, CMA CGM, then announced (7/7) that it was halting service to Iran in direct response to the threat of U.S. sanctions, and U.S. president Trump saw an opening to reengage. “I know they’re having a lot of problems and their economy is collapsing,” Trump said at a press conference in Brussels on 7/12. “But I will tell you this—at a certain point they’re going to call me and they’re going to say, ‘let’s make a deal.’ And we’ll make a deal.” Rouhani then called (7/22) on Trump to adopt less aggressive policies toward Iran and alluded to the possibility of armed conflict. In response, Trump tweeted (7/22), “NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE U.S. AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE.”
As Trump and other U.S. officials vacillated between threats and offers to negotiate, the U.S. reimposed (8/7) sanctions on Iran, excluding the energy sector. The move worsened relations between the U.S. and its European allies and increased the pressure on negotiators at the European-Iranian talks in Vienna. “These are the most biting sanctions ever imposed,” Trump tweeted (8/7).“In [11/2018] they ratchet up to yet another level. Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the U.S. I am asking for WORLD PEACE, nothing less!” EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, along with the FMs of the UK, France, and Germany, issued a statement (8/7) expressing “deep” regret over the reimposition of sanctions. “The remaining parties to the JCPOA have committed to work on, inter alia, the preservation and maintenance of effective financial channels with Iran, and the continuation of Iran’s export of oil and gas,” their statement read. “These efforts will be intensified and reviewed at ministerial level in the coming weeks.” Mogherini also encouraged European companies to continue doing business with Iran, despite the sanctions. “We are doing our best to keep Iran in the deal, to keep Iran benefiting from the economic benefits that the agreement brings to the people of Iran because we believe this is in the security interests of not only our region, but also of the world,” she said (8/7).