Quarterly Updates

Kicking off his first international trip as U.S. president, Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia on 5/20–22. He met with King Salman and the leaders of various other Arab states, called on “Muslim nations” to “take on the burden” of defeating terrorism, and signed an agreement to sell $110 b.

Iranian pres. Hassan Rouhani was elected to a second term on 5/19, winning 58.6% of the vote in what many saw as a referendum on his reformist platform and Iran’s 7/14/2015 nuclear deal with the P5+1 (the U.S., UK, China, Russia, France, and Germany).

Intelligence Breakdown

Israel and New Zealand restored diplomatic relations this quarter, ending their mos.-long conflict over Wellington’s support for UN Security Council Resolution 2334 in 12/2016 (see JPS 46 [2]).

Israeli PM Netanyahu continued his outreach efforts in Africa this quarter. On the sidelines of an Economic Community of West African States summit in Liberia on 6/4, he met with Senegalese pres. Macky Sall, and they agreed to resume full diplomatic relations.

There were only a handful of announcements of new international aid for the Palestinians this quarter.

Boycott

The flare-up of violence in response to the new Israeli security measures at Haram al-Sharif in 7/2017 led to the first significant quarterly increase in the number of Palestinian and Israeli casualties in over a year.

The U.S. and Israel mobilized against 2 Palestinian-backed measures at the annual meeting of the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Comm., which took place in Kraków, Poland, on 7/2–12. Despite their efforts, the comm.

With Trump’s peace initiative stalling, Chinese pres. Xi Jinping signaled a new willingness to enter the Palestinian-Israeli arena. During a joint press conference with PA pres.

The following data comes from a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) on 8–11 March 2017. The results are based on a survey of 1,270 men and women from the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.

The Israeli cabinet approved (4/23) a major 1/2017 deal with China to provide 6,000 laborers to fill an unmet demand for construction workers in Israel.

After briefly partaking in the international effort to facilitate a new round of IsraeliPalestinian peace talks in late 2016 (see JPS 46 [2]), Russia was largely absent from the Israeli-Palestinian arena this quarter.

Emboldened by the new U.S. admin.’s pro-Israel rhetoric, the Israeli govt. ramped up its efforts to counter allegedly anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic programs at the UN this quarter.

The Ad Hoc Liaison Comm. (AHLC), the chief policy-level coordination mechanism for development assistance to the Palestinians, met on 5/4 in Brussels, under the chairmanship of Norwegian FM Børge Brende.

U.S. pres. Donald Trump, mired in domestic policy issues, sought a foreign policy achievement during this quarter. Both the Israelis and the Palestinians positioned themselves for yet another major U.S.-backed effort to advance the peace process.

U.S. pres. Donald Trump launches a new regional initiative in an effort to restart Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations. The Israeli govt. announces a new policy to guide settlement growth in the West Bank, and the Ramallah-based Palestinian leadership struggles to consolidate its position.

MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS MISFIRE

On 4/3, PA pres. Abbas called on the UK govt. to offer incoming Palestinian rep. Maen Areikat the same diplomatic status as his predecessor, Manuel Hassassian. “We asked the British govt. to deal with the new representative in the same way it dealt with the outgoing one,” he said.

Marking the latest EU-Israeli conflict over Israeli demolitions of Palestinian property, the EU’s Amb. to Israel Lars FaaborgAndersen had a reportedly tense meeting with the new dir.-gen. of Israel’s Foreign Ministry, Yuval Rotem, in late 3/2017.

Reflecting a yearlong trend of declining violence, the number of Palestinian and Israeli casualties decreased slightly this quarter (see JPS 46 [1–3]): 21 Palestinians were killed as a result of Israeli actions (down from 29 last quarter), and 1 Israeli was ki

Tensions flared along the Israeli-Lebanese border this quarter, which observers attributed to Lebanese pres. Michel Aoun’s friendly ties with Hezbollah (see JPS 46 [2]).

Israeli interference in the Syrian civil war sparked a minor diplomatic crisis between Moscow and Tel Aviv this quarter. After the Israeli Air Force reportedly carried out air strikes against several Hezbollah positions in s. Syria late at night on 3/16, the Syrian govt.

Despite some coordination between Egyptian pres. al-Sisi and PA pres. Abbas on the incoming U.S. admin.’s new “outside-in” approach to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, minor disagreements persisted, and the Egyptian-Palestinian relationship remained uneasy.

Amid shifting regional dynamics, internal Iranian politics fluctuated throughout the quarter. Iranian pres.

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The foreign policy community in Washington, both in and out of govt., struggled with the persistent uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. pres.’s plans this quarter. Trump’s vision in the realm of international relations remained unclear, especially with regard to the IsraeliPalestinian arena.

In his alacrity to build a positive relationship with the new U.S. pres., Netanyahu sparked a minor diplomatic crisis with Mexico. In reference to Trump’s loudly proclaimed intention to build a wall along the border with Mexico, on 1/28, the Israeli PM tweeted, “Pres. Trump is right.

After Russian pres. Vladimir Putin’s proposal to host peace talks between PA pres. Abbas and Israeli PM Netanyahu in Moscow fell through last quarter (see JPS 46 [2]), the Russian govt. backed away from the Israeli-Palestinian arena. PLO secy.-gen.

German chancellor Angela Merkel postponed indefinitely the Israeli-German summit scheduled for 5/10/2017, according to a report in Haaretz on 2/13.